超半数外汇策略师极度担忧一件事：美元被特朗普“摧毁”

Group 1 - Concerns about the dollar's loss of safe-haven appeal are increasing among forex strategists, with predictions of further declines in the global reserve currency over the next year amid rising recession fears [1] - Since Trump's return to the White House, the dollar has fallen nearly 9% against a basket of major currencies, with investor sentiment negatively impacted by his inconsistent tariff policies [1] - A survey of 83 respondents revealed that over 55% expressed concerns about the dollar's safe-haven status, a significant increase from about one-third in the previous survey [1] Group 2 - Nearly 80% of strategists expect little change in the net short positions of the dollar in the CFTC by the end of May, indicating some potential for a dollar rebound [2] - The median forecast suggests the euro will rise to 1.14 against the dollar in six months and 1.16 in twelve months, marking the largest monthly adjustment since November 2010 [2] - Despite expectations of three rate cuts by the Federal Reserve by the end of the year, decision-makers have indicated they are not in a hurry to lower rates [2] Group 3 - Concerns about the independence of the Federal Reserve could severely undermine the dollar's safe-haven status, with alternative currencies like the yen and Swiss franc benefiting from the current situation [3] - The yen and Swiss franc have both risen nearly 10% this year, with economists predicting further increases of 2.8% and 0.4% respectively over the next twelve months [3]