COIN to Report Q1 Earnings: Will Higher Trading Volume Be a Catalyst?

Core Viewpoint - Coinbase Global (COIN) is expected to report its first-quarter 2025 results on May 8, with a history of earnings surprises in the last four quarters [1] Trading Volumes - Increased asset volatility and improved crypto asset prices are likely to have boosted trading volumes in the first quarter, which remains a major revenue driver for Coinbase [2] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for total trading volume is 404 million, reflecting a 28.5% increase year-over-year. The estimate for Consumer trading volume is 83 million, indicating a 48.2% rise, while Institutional trading volume is pegged at 321 million, showing a 25.4% increase [3] Transaction Revenues - Transaction revenues are expected to benefit from higher fees for both Consumer and Institutional segments, with the Zacks Consensus Estimate for total transaction revenues at $1.325 billion, a 23% increase from the previous year. Consumer transaction revenues are estimated at $1.2 billion, and Institutional revenues at $127 million, suggesting a 49.4% year-over-year increase [4] Market Share and Product Growth - Revenues are anticipated to be supported by market share gains in U.S. spot and derivatives trading products, as well as growth in custody, staking, USDC assets, and Coinbase One subscribers [5] Earnings Prediction - The quantitative model does not predict an earnings beat for Coinbase this quarter, with an Earnings ESP of -5.23% and a Zacks Rank of 3 (Hold) [6][7]