世界经济在不确定性中仍具韧性（环球热点）

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the significant negative impact of the U.S. tariff policy on global trade and economic growth, highlighting the resulting uncertainty and its effects on various economies [4][5][7]. Group 1: Impact on Global Economy - The U.S. tariff policy has been described as a "major negative shock" to the world economy, with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) lowering its global growth forecasts for 2025 and 2026 to 2.8% and 3% respectively, down by 0.5 percentage points from earlier predictions [5][6]. - The IMF noted that the actual tariff levels have reached the highest in a century, contributing to increased uncertainty and negatively affecting economic activities and prospects globally [5][6]. - Concerns have spread globally, with representatives from various regions expressing worries about the adverse effects of U.S. tariffs on both developed and developing economies [5][6]. Group 2: Effects on U.S. Economy - The IMF has projected that the U.S. economic growth will slow to 1.8% this year, a reduction of 0.9 percentage points from previous forecasts, primarily due to policy uncertainty and weakened demand [7][8]. - Former U.S. Treasury Secretaries have indicated a significant increase in the likelihood of a recession in the U.S. as a result of the tariff policies [7][8]. Group 3: Long-term Consequences - The article emphasizes that the U.S. tariff policy could lead to long-term structural damage to the global economy, potentially stalling innovation and hindering sustainable development efforts [8][9]. - The uncertainty created by the tariffs is causing investors to hesitate, leading to a decline in consumer confidence and spending [8][9]. Group 4: China's Position - In contrast to the U.S. approach, China is portrayed as a "certainty oasis," actively expanding its global trade partnerships and maintaining stable economic growth, with a reported GDP growth of 5.4% in the first quarter [12][13]. - China's efforts to establish high-standard free trade agreements and create a favorable business environment are seen as strategies to counteract the negative impacts of U.S. tariffs [12][13].