欧佩克+八国5月起日增产41.1万桶 石油市场或加速供需失衡

Core Viewpoint - OPEC+ has announced a significant shift in its production strategy, increasing daily oil production by 411,000 barrels in June, maintaining the same level as May, which is substantially higher than the initially planned increase of 137,000 barrels [1] Group 1: Production Changes - OPEC+ members, including Saudi Arabia, Russia, and Iraq, are accelerating production for the second consecutive month, marking a notable departure from the previous reduction policies implemented since 2022 [1] - The total increase in production from April to June is projected to reach 960,000 barrels per day, equivalent to 44% of the previously agreed voluntary reduction [2] Group 2: Market Dynamics - The oil market is facing significant supply-demand pressures, with forecasts indicating a potential oversupply situation by 2025, even if OPEC+ maintains current production levels [1] - International oil prices have experienced sharp declines, with Brent crude falling nearly 30% from its peak at the beginning of the year, and Barclays has revised its 2025 Brent crude price forecast down to $66 per barrel [1] Group 3: Internal Disagreements - There are increasing divisions within OPEC+, as Saudi Arabia has expressed reluctance to continue supporting oil prices through production cuts, while Kazakhstan has indicated that its production decisions will prioritize national interests over collective OPEC+ interests [2] - The current strategy raises questions about whether OPEC+ has abandoned its traditional price maintenance approach in favor of expanding market share, as the reality of increasing supply is pushing international oil prices lower [2]