铜价能否继续走高？

Group 1 - The Peruvian government has implemented a curfew in the Pataz region due to rising crime, suspending all mining activities for 30 days, which may raise concerns about the stability of copper supply from Peru, the world's third-largest copper producer [1] - Peru's copper production for 2024 is projected at 2.736 million tons, accounting for approximately 10% of global output, indicating the significance of any disruptions in this region [1] - The Pataz region primarily produces gold and silver, with limited copper production, suggesting that the impact on precious metal prices may be relatively minor despite the mining suspension [1] Group 2 - The overall weakness in non-ferrous metals is attributed to two main factors: the impact of the trade war initiated by the Trump administration on the US economy and the significant fluctuations in demand expectations due to tariffs [2] - Domestic copper consumption in China exceeded expectations with an 8% growth in apparent consumption in the first quarter, but a seasonal decline is anticipated post-May, which may weaken the demand-side support for copper prices [2] - Analysts remain cautiously optimistic about copper prices in the medium term, despite potential high-level corrections, as the fundamentals appear strong, and the market is currently experiencing low inventory levels [3]