凯立新材(688269)：催化剂销量高速增长 25Q1收入创历史新高

Core Viewpoint - The company is experiencing significant growth in catalyst sales, with a record high revenue in Q1 2025, driven by new product launches and strong customer relationships [1][2]. Group 1: Sales Performance - In 2024, overall catalyst sales reached 597 tons, a year-on-year increase of 60.21%, with pharmaceutical sales up 71.79%, new chemical materials up 173.82%, and basic chemicals up 47.28% [2]. - Q1 2025 saw catalyst sales increase by 188.87% year-on-year, with pharmaceutical and basic chemical sales growing by 174.88% and 285.6%, respectively [2]. Group 2: Price Dynamics - The average price of palladium, a key raw material, was 260.49 yuan/kg in 2024, down 24.79% year-on-year, while the overall sales price of catalysts fell to 2384.43 yuan/kg, a decrease of 44.58% [2]. - Palladium prices are expected to stabilize between $800 and $1,200 per ounce in 2025, which will create a more favorable environment for business operations compared to the significant price drops in 2023-2024 [3]. Group 3: New Products and Contracts - By the end of 2024, the company's contract liabilities reached 0.35 billion yuan, an increase of 0.27 billion yuan year-on-year, indicating a rise in business volume under a payment-on-delivery model [4]. - The HNBR (hydrogenated nitrile butadiene rubber) project is under construction and is expected to launch in the second half of 2025, utilizing low-cost catalytic hydrogenation technology [4]. Group 4: Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company forecasts net profits of 170 million yuan, 236 million yuan, and 268 million yuan for 2025-2027, representing year-on-year growth of 83.51%, 38.66%, and 13.67%, respectively [5]. - The stable raw material prices and increased catalyst sales are expected to enhance profit elasticity in 2025, supported by the release of contract liabilities and new product volumes [5].