国泰海通晨报 [Table_Summary] 1、【策略研究】：商业航天顶层设计持续强化，政策引领释放产业创新势能。卫星组网需求爆发， 新供给与新技术助力打破发展瓶颈，看好商业航天产业低成本/高可靠/规模化发展。 2、【固定收益研究】：债市回调后把握信用票息配置机会，"中短端票息+适度下沉"策略确定性 较高。 3、【军工研究】国博电子：公司 2025H1 受传统领域确认收入延期影响业绩下滑，Q2 单季度环比 实现高增长，毛利率与净利率持续提升；公司在低轨卫星和商业航天领域取得显著进展，多款 T/R 组件产品已开始交付客户。 4、【生物医药研究】恩华药业：公司是国内精麻类药品龙头企业，所处赛道具备高壁垒，集采影 响基本见底，重点关注创新成果逐步落地。 [汤蔚翔 Table_Authors] (分析师) 电话：021-38676172 邮箱：tangweixiang@gtht.com 登记编号：S0880511010007 [Table_ImportantInfo] 今日重点推荐 2025 年 09 月 18 日 国泰海通证券股份有限公司 研究所 方奕(分析师) 021-38031658 fangyi2@gtht ...

天风证券近日发布化学制品研究报告：从需求端看，24年基建、出口较为坚挺，地产周 期下行持续，出口2023年较差状态下2024年完成修复，消费连续两年完成修复依然坚挺。从 供给端看，全球化工资本2024年增速转负；国内来看，上市公司在建工程增速快速下行并在 2024Q2接近见底，而固定资产则保持超过15%的增长速度。 以下为研究报告摘要： 摘要 1、行业估值指标、景气度指标：化工行业综合景气指数；工业增加值 2、价格指标：PPI\PPIRM\CCPI、价格价差（化工品价格走势及最新历史分位） 3、供给端指标：产能利用率、能耗、固定资产投资、存货、在建工程情况 4、进出口指标：进出口价值贡献度拆分 5、下游行业运行指标：PMI、地产、家电、汽车、纺服 6、行业经济效益指标：三大行业经济效益指标 10、欧美地区化工产品价格及生产指标：化工行业景气指标、化工行业信心指数、产能 利用率、产量指数、PPI、生产指数 行业观点 回顾与展望 此轮周期或将行至尾声，静待需求修复。从需求端看，24年基建、出口较为坚挺，地产 周期下行持续，出口2023年较差状态下2024年完成修复，消费连续两年完成修复依然坚挺。 从供给端看，全球 ...

股 Q2 业绩同环比增长，看好长期成长性 凯立新材(688269) ——凯立新材 2025 年中报点评 | [姓名table_Authors] | 电话 | 邮箱 | 登记编号 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 刘威(分析师) | 0755-82764281 | liuwei7@gtht.com | S0880525040100 | | 周志鹏(分析师) | 021-38676666 | zhouzhipeng@gtht.com | S0880523060004 | 本报告导读： | [Table_Finance] 财务摘要(百万元) | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入 | 1,785 | 1,687 | 2,107 | 2,605 | 3,115 | | (+/-)% | -5.1% | -5.5% | 24.9% | 23.7% | 19.6% | | 净利润(归母) | 113 | 93 | 151 | 238 | 351 | | (+/- ...

| | 石油 | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 002287 | 奇正 | 0.69 | 0.39 | 27.57 | 27.69 | -0.43 | 27.59 | -0.34 | | | 藏药 | | | | | | | | | 600793 | 宜宾 | -0.58 | 0.98 | 24.25 | 24.35 | -0.40 | 23.98 | -1.51 | | | 纸业 | | | | | | | | | 600273 | 嘉化 | 0.48 | 0.47 | 8.35 | 8.38 | -0.39 | 8.30 | -1.01 | | | 能源 | | | | | | | | | 600419 | 天润 乳业 | -1.70 | 1.32 | 10.61 | 10.65 | -0.39 | 10.38 | -2.57 | | 300147 | ST 香 | -0.57 | 1.1 1 | 10.82 | 10.87 | -0.38 | 10.55 | -2.90 | | | 雪 | ...

行 业 及 产 业 行 业 研 究 / 行 业 点 评 2025 年 09 月 14 日 美联储降息与金九银十共振，印度 GFL R32 泄露或助我国出口，我国 发起对美模拟芯片反倾销调查 看好 ——《化工周报 25/09/08-25/09/12》 证 券 研 究 证券分析师 马昕晔 A0230511090002 maxy@swsresearch.com 宋涛 A0230516070001 songtao@swsresearch.com 研究支持 任杰 A0230522070003 renjie@swsresearch.com 邵靖宇 A0230524080001 shaojy@swsresearch.com 周超 A0230123090004 zhouchao@swsresearch.com 李绍程 A0230525070002 lisc@swsresearch.com 赵文琪 A0230523060003 zhaowq@swsresearch.com 联系人 马昕晔 (8621)23297818× maxy@swsresearch.com 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 中庚基金 使用。1 本期投资提示： 请 ...

证券代码：688269 证券简称：凯立新材 公告编号：2025-029 西安凯立新材料股份有限公司 二、 说明会召开的时间、地点 关于参加 2025 年半年度科创板新材料行业 集体业绩说明会的公告 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述 或者重大遗漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担法律责任。 重要内容提示： 投资者可于 2025 年 9 月 11 日（星期四）至 2025 年 9 月 17 日(星 期三)16:00 前登录上证路演中心网站首页点击"提问预征集"栏目 或通过公司邮箱（zhengquanbu@xakaili.com）进行提问。公司将在 说明会上对投资者普遍关注的问题进行回答。 西安凯立新材料股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"）已于 2025 年 8 月 15 日发布公司 2025 年半年度报告，为便于广大投资者更全面 深入地了解公司 2025 年半年度经营成果、财务状况、发展理念，公 司计划于 2025 年 9 月 18 日（星期四）参与由上交所主办的 2025 年 半年度新材料行业集体业绩说明会，与投资者进行线上的沟通和交流。 会议召开时间：2025 年 9 月 ...

Core Insights - The report emphasizes that the chemical industry is entering a new phase of capital expenditure, with a focus on the rebalancing of supply and demand following the release of production capacity during the 14th Five-Year Plan period [2][6] - The report indicates that the bottom of the cycle is becoming clearer, with potential price increases for chemical products driven by demand recovery and supply stability in the second half of the year [2][6] Industry Overview - The current cycle has reached its tail end, with a total of 12 quarters of decline since Q3 2022, following a 7-quarter expansion from Q4 2020 to Q2 2022 [10][12] - The report outlines that the chemical industry has experienced three significant price fluctuation cycles since 2010, with the latest cycle characterized by a demand-driven recovery followed by a supply-side pressure [8][10] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on sectors with relatively low valuations, such as sucralose (recommended: Jinhe Industrial), pesticides (recommended: Yangnong Chemical, Runfeng Shares), and MDI (recommended: Wanhua Chemical) [3][4] - It highlights the importance of domestic demand in countering tariff impacts, recommending companies in refrigerants and fertilizers [3][4] - The report identifies investment opportunities in sectors with upcoming capacity releases, such as organic silicon (recommended: Xin'an Chemical) and spandex [3][4] Price and Profitability Trends - The report notes that many sub-industry product prices remain at historical lows, with specific prices for spandex, PA6, and other fibers at 0%, 4%, and 5% of historical levels respectively [28] - It mentions that the chemical industry has seen a slight recovery in profitability in Q1 2025, although the overall performance remains under pressure [27][25] Supply and Demand Dynamics - The report indicates that the global chemical capital expenditure is on a downward trend, with domestic companies experiencing a slowdown in investment while still facing significant pressure to convert projects into fixed assets [22][32] - It also states that both domestic and international markets are entering a replenishment phase in 2025, which may influence inventory levels and pricing strategies [35][36]

Core Insights - Pension funds have emerged as significant shareholders in 11 stocks listed on the Sci-Tech Innovation Board, with a total holding of 50.67 million shares valued at 2.647 billion yuan at the end of Q2 [1][2] Group 1: Pension Fund Holdings - Pension funds have newly entered 3 stocks, increased holdings in 2 stocks, and reduced holdings in 4 stocks, while 2 stocks remained unchanged in their holdings [1] - The stock with the highest holding ratio by pension funds is Haitai New Light, accounting for 4.20% of the circulating shares, followed by Rongzhi Rixin and Huafeng Technology at 4.04% and 2.67%, respectively [1] - The top holdings by quantity include Transsion Holdings with 17.72 million shares, Shengyi Electronics with 5.33 million shares, and Yubang Power with 5.19 million shares [1] Group 2: Industry Focus - The stocks held by pension funds are primarily concentrated in the electronics, pharmaceutical, and national defense industries, with 3, 2, and 2 stocks respectively [1] - Eight stocks have been continuously held by pension funds for more than two reporting periods, with Yubang Power and Kaili New Materials being held for 12 reporting periods [1] Group 3: Performance Metrics - Among the stocks held by pension funds, 7 reported year-on-year net profit growth in the first half of the year, with Rongzhi Rixin showing the highest growth of 2063.42% [2] - The average increase of the Sci-Tech Innovation Board stocks held by pension funds since July is 17.32%, with Huafeng Technology leading with a cumulative increase of 40.03% [2] - The stock with the largest decline is Guoke Military Industry, which has decreased by 8.89% [2]

Group 1 - As of August 26, 2025, the stock price of Kaili New Materials is 40.61 yuan, with a slight increase of 0.02 yuan from the previous trading day [1] - The trading volume on that day was 22,982 lots, with a total transaction amount of 94 million yuan, and the intraday price fluctuation was 3.13% [1] - Kaili New Materials is primarily engaged in the research, production, and sales of precious metal catalysts, with applications in pharmaceuticals, chemicals, and environmental protection [1] Group 2 - By the end of the second quarter, two social security funds appeared in the top ten circulating shareholders of the company, holding a total of 5.0314 million shares, which is an increase of 8.83% compared to the end of the first quarter, accounting for 3.85% of circulating shares [1] - The market value of the shares held by social security funds reached 167 million yuan [1] - On August 26, the net inflow of main funds was 9.6065 million yuan, with a cumulative net inflow of 3.9938 million yuan over the past five trading days [1]

Group 1: Resident Deposit Migration - The report indicates that resident deposit migration is expected to begin, typically occurring 10-12 months after a market transition from bear to bull, with the current period being 11 months since the last transition [1][6][7] - Initial signs of deposit migration have emerged, with a notable increase in non-bank deposit growth turning positive, suggesting potential for significant market inflow [6][9] - Short-term market consolidation of 2-3 months is anticipated as deposits begin to migrate, based on historical patterns observed in previous bull markets [8][9] Group 2: Unmanned Sanitation Vehicles - The unmanned sanitation vehicle market is projected to reach a scale of approximately 123 billion yuan in 2024, with significant growth expected as the industry transitions from the 0-1 stage to mass production [12][14] - The economic benefits of unmanned sanitation vehicles are substantial, with potential labor cost savings of 12-16 million yuan per vehicle by replacing 3-4 workers, leading to a cost reduction of up to 66% under certain conditions [13][15] - The market for unmanned sanitation vehicles is estimated to be worth between 1.16 trillion and 2.91 trillion yuan, depending on the replacement rate of sanitation workers [14][15] Group 3: Semiconductor Equipment - The report highlights a significant growth potential in the semiconductor equipment sector, particularly in the context of domestic AI development and the need for self-sufficient supply chains [3][18] - The domestic semiconductor equipment market has an average annual scale of approximately 41.7 billion USD, with expectations for continued expansion driven by AI applications [19] - Key companies in the semiconductor equipment space are recommended for investment, including those involved in front-end and back-end equipment, as well as the photolithography supply chain [19] Group 4: Power Prediction Business - The company is recognized as a leader in power prediction, with a projected net profit growth of 40% to 27% from 2025 to 2027, supported by a strong market demand and technological barriers [4][22][24] - The number of service sites for power prediction has increased significantly, indicating robust growth in this segment, with a 55.14% increase in revenue from power prediction services [23] - The company is actively investing in strategic partnerships to enhance its market position in the renewable energy sector [24] Group 5: Wind Power Equipment - The company has reported a 41.26% increase in revenue for the first half of 2025, driven by a significant rise in wind turbine sales, which saw a 106.58% increase in sales capacity [32][33] - The company’s gross margin for wind turbine sales has improved, reflecting operational efficiencies and increased demand [33] - Future projections indicate continued growth in net profit, with expectations of 63.8% growth from 2025 to 2027 [35] Group 6: Lithium Battery Materials - The company has achieved a 28.97% increase in revenue for the first half of 2025, with expectations for further price stabilization and growth in the second half of the year [37][38] - The company is focusing on innovation in lithium battery materials, with significant investments in new technologies and production capabilities [38][39] - Projections for net profit growth from 2025 to 2027 are robust, with an anticipated increase of 68.5% [39]