沪金避险情绪减弱 螺纹钢市场预期偏弱

Group 1: Rebar Market - Financial policies are supporting market expectations, leading to a stable night market for rebar [1] - Current steel mill profits are good, but rebar supply pressure is increasing, with weekly production exceeding last year's levels [1] - Market skepticism exists regarding external demand and domestic steel demand resilience, leading to a stalemate in price negotiations [1] - Rebar market inventory is low, providing some support for prices, but high production and seasonal demand decline are expected to keep prices fluctuating at low levels [1] Group 2: Gold Market - The pricing mechanism for gold is shifting from being based on real interest rates to central bank purchases, reflecting a decentralized and risk-averse demand [1] - The dollar's credit is under strain due to debt issues, highlighting gold's role in the de-dollarization process [1] - Geopolitical risks are easing, but trade tensions from tariffs are sustaining market demand for gold as a safe haven [1][2] - Recent U.S. labor market data shows strong non-farm employment, with unemployment stable at 4.2%, while inflation data indicates a slight decrease [2] - Expectations for a cautious interest rate policy from the Federal Reserve may influence gold prices, with reduced safe-haven buying anticipated [2] Group 3: Rubber Market - The supply side is favorable as major producing regions are entering the seasonal tapping period, with expected increases in supply in May [3] - Demand from semi-steel tire manufacturers is weak, leading to lower capacity utilization rates [3] - China's small passenger car tire exports increased to 287,500 tons in March, up 31.48% month-on-month, while truck tire exports also showed strong performance [3] - Overall inventory levels remain high, with a slow accumulation of natural rubber stocks, indicating a bearish trend for prices [3]