BCR聚焦国际金融热点： 超级央行风暴眼：九连阳美股撞上鹰派美联储，历史性拐点浮现

Group 1 - Global markets experienced a significant turning point last week, driven by easing trade tensions and unexpectedly strong April non-farm payroll data, which alleviated concerns about economic slowdown [1] - The S&P 500 index recorded its longest consecutive rise since 2004, increasing for nine days in a row, while the Dow Jones also achieved a nine-day gain, recovering all losses caused by tariff announcements within two weeks [1] Group 2 - The April non-farm payroll added 177,000 jobs, serving as a key catalyst that led traders to significantly reduce expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts [2] - U.S. Treasury yields surged across the board, with the yield spread between 2-year and 10-year bonds narrowing to 15 basis points, indicating a typical bear market flattening [2] - The U.S. dollar index rebounded sharply after the non-farm data release, closing above the 100 mark with a weekly increase of 1.8% [2] Group 3 - The commodities market showed contrasting trends, with gold prices dropping 3.2%, marking the largest weekly decline since November 2020, and falling over 7% from the historical high of $3,500 per ounce [2] - The WTI crude oil market faced a significant decline, with prices dropping 8% for the week, the worst performance since March, exacerbated by OPEC+'s decision to increase production by 411,000 barrels per day [2] Group 4 - Attention is focused on two major central bank decisions in the coming week, with the Federal Reserve expected to maintain the benchmark interest rate at 5.25-5.5%, while market focus shifts to clues regarding the timing of potential rate cuts [3] - Despite a surprising 0.3% contraction in U.S. GDP for Q1, analysts suggest this may be due to statistical distortions from companies rushing imports, with expectations for a recovery in Q2 data [3] - The Bank of England's decision on May 8 is anticipated to be more market-moving, with 80% of traders betting on the initiation of a rate cut cycle, potentially lowering the key rate from 4.5% to 4.25% [3]