Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that the U.S. labor market remains strong, providing a basis for the Federal Reserve to maintain a restrictive monetary policy, despite potential inflationary pressures from tariffs [3][4] - The April non-farm payroll report showed an increase of 177,000 jobs, exceeding the market expectation of 150,000, while the unemployment rate held steady at 4.2% for the third consecutive month [3] - The market's expectation for the first rate cut by the Federal Reserve has been pushed from June to July, with a 62% probability of a 25 basis point cut in July, reflecting caution regarding tariff policy uncertainties [4] Group 2 - Technical analysis of the U.S. dollar index shows a typical oscillation pattern, with MACD indicators indicating weak short-term momentum, while RSI and CCI suggest that the market is not yet in an oversold condition [3] - The dollar index is currently trading between the middle and lower bands of the Bollinger Bands, indicating a need to break through the middle band to confirm a directional trend [3][5] - Investors should focus on three key variables: the final implementation of the Trump administration's tariff policy and its impact on supply chains, the upcoming April CPI data's influence on inflation expectations, and recent comments from Federal Reserve officials regarding policy direction [5]
dbg markets盾博：非农数据超预期 美联储或延至7月降息
Sou Hu Cai Jing·2025-05-07 03:41