碳酸锂：25 年 5 月 6 日价格续跌 过剩持续

Core Viewpoint - The lithium carbonate market is experiencing a supply surplus, with production levels remaining high despite some companies reducing output. This trend is expected to continue, leading to further price declines in the near future [1]. Market Dynamics - The main contract for lithium carbonate opened at 65,980 CNY/ton and closed at 65,260 CNY/ton, marking a decrease of 1.45% from the previous settlement price [1]. - Trading volume was 103,979 lots, with open interest increasing by 11,562 lots to 256,291 lots. Total open interest across all contracts decreased by 3,011 lots to 407,535 lots [1]. - The total trading volume decreased by 17,431 lots compared to the previous day, with a speculative ratio of 0.34 [1]. Price Trends - The current spot price for battery-grade lithium carbonate is between 65,700 - 68,500 CNY/ton, down by 850 CNY/ton from the previous period. Industrial-grade lithium carbonate is priced between 64,900 - 65,900 CNY/ton, down by 800 CNY/ton [1]. - There is a downward trend in ore prices, which is unlikely to support lithium carbonate prices [1]. Supply and Demand - Despite some lithium salt companies undergoing maintenance or production cuts, weekly production continues to decline slightly, but not enough to alter the oversupply situation [1]. - In May, both supply and demand are expected to increase, but supply is still anticipated to outpace demand, leading to a continued surplus in the lithium carbonate market [1]. - The downstream production is steadily increasing, but the purchasing demand has not shown significant improvement, resulting in a lackluster spot market [1]. Strategy and Outlook - The current strategy suggests selling high for hedging purposes, with no operations planned for cross-period, cross-product, or options trading [1]. - The market sentiment and fundamentals remain weak, indicating potential further declines in lithium prices [1].