SA(SH:601021) Xin Lang Cai Jing·2025-05-07 04:35Core Insights - Spring Airlines reported a revenue of 20 billion yuan for 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 11.50%, with a net profit of 2.273 billion yuan, up 0.69% [1] - For Q1 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 5.317 billion yuan, a 2.88% increase year-on-year, but the net profit decreased by 16.39% to 677 million yuan [1] Group 1: Operational Performance - In 2024, the overall Available Seat Kilometers (ASK) increased by 16.1% year-on-year, and by 26.1% compared to 2019 [1] - Revenue Passenger Kilometers (RPK) grew by 18.8% year-on-year, and by 27.0% compared to 2019, with a passenger load factor improving by 2.1 percentage points year-on-year and 0.7 percentage points compared to 2019 [1] - For Q1 2025, ASK grew by 6.9%, with domestic, international, and regional segments showing changes of -3.3%, +66.1%, and -58.08% respectively [1] - RPK for Q1 2025 increased by 6.2%, with domestic, international, and regional segments showing changes of -2.9%, +61.6%, and -58.6% respectively [1] Group 2: Profitability and Shareholder Returns - The single aircraft profit margin has been recovering, with figures of 19.05 million and 18.184 million for 2023 and 2024 respectively, approaching pre-pandemic levels [2] - The company has committed to a cash dividend strategy for 2024-2026, ensuring at least 30% of distributable profits are paid out in cash if profits are positive [2] - In 2024, the total cash dividend amounted to 798 million yuan, with a share buyback of 66.86 million yuan, totaling 864 million yuan, which is 38.03% of the net profit [2] Group 3: Earnings Forecast and Investment Recommendation - The company is expected to maintain strong profitability, with projected net profits of 2.71 billion, 3.3 billion, and 4.04 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [3] - Earnings per share (EPS) are forecasted to be 2.77, 3.38, and 4.13 yuan for the same years [3] - A target price of 66.48 yuan is set based on a 24 times price-to-earnings ratio for 2025, with an initial "buy" rating [3]