寻找下一个 “黄金”，5 月市场突围指南

Group 1: Gold Market Dynamics - The gold market is experiencing a dual pressure from "policy suppression" and "central bank purchases," with international gold prices dropping from $3,500 per ounce to $3,240 per ounce [2] - China's central bank increased its gold reserves by 12.8 tons in Q1 2025, reaching a total of 2,292 tons, marking a historical high in the proportion of gold to foreign exchange reserves [2] - Goldman Sachs raised its gold price forecast for the end of 2025 to $3,300 per ounce, despite a 21% year-on-year decrease in global central bank net gold purchases in Q1 2025 [2] Group 2: Swiss Franc as a Safe Haven - The Swiss franc has shown resilience as a "safe-haven currency," with a stable exchange rate against the Chinese yuan at 8.78 and a year-to-date increase of over 2% [3] - The Swiss National Bank maintains a negative interest rate policy, attracting funds due to its political neutrality and financial stability [3] - Historical data indicates that the Swiss franc performed well during the 2008 financial crisis and recent trade wars, attributed to its strict banking secrecy and low inflation environment [3] Group 3: Bitcoin's Breakthrough - Bitcoin reached a historic milestone, stabilizing above $95,000, with institutional funds flowing into ETFs, resulting in a single-day net inflow of 7,000 BTC [4] - Analysts predict Bitcoin may challenge the $100,000 resistance level, driven by large-scale institutional investments, halving cycle effects, and macroeconomic risk aversion [4] - The week of April 20-26 saw a record net inflow of $3.1 billion into Bitcoin spot ETFs, with BlackRock's IBIT fund surpassing its gold ETF in size [4] Group 4: High Dividend Stocks as Safe Haven - High dividend stocks have emerged as a "safe haven" in volatile markets, with the Shanghai-Shenzhen 300 index dividend yield rising to 3.5% [5] - Traditional industries like coal and electricity have shown stable cash flows, demonstrating resilience during market corrections [5] - In the U.S. market, companies like Western Midstream and Dow Chemical offer high dividend yields of 9.40% and 9.15%, respectively, providing bond-like returns to investors [5] Group 5: Investment Strategy Insights - The current market conditions suggest a redefinition of safe-haven assets, advocating for a diversified "golden portfolio" rather than chasing single assets [6] - Investors are encouraged to balance their portfolios across U.S. Treasuries, U.S. stocks, and A-shares while diversifying risks with gold, Swiss francs, and cryptocurrencies [6]