迎驾贡酒(603198)：业绩承压 理性发展

Core Viewpoint - The company is experiencing a decline in performance for Q4 2024 and Q1 2025, with pressure on liquor revenue, but an improvement in ton price and product structure is noted. The growth of the cave series is expected to be relatively leading, and the annual dividend rate is projected to increase slightly to 46% year-on-year. The company aims to maintain strategic focus and rational growth in 2025 [1]. Financial Performance - The company achieved a revenue of 7.344 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 8.46%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 2.589 billion yuan, up 13.45% year-on-year, with a gross margin of 73.9%, an increase of 2.92 percentage points year-on-year. However, Q4 2024 saw a negative year-on-year growth rate [2]. - For Q1 2025, the company reported a revenue of 2.047 billion yuan, down 12.4% year-on-year, and a net profit of 829 million yuan, down 9.5% year-on-year. The gross margin for Q1 2025 was 75.0%, an increase of 1.5 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin was 39.2%, up 1.3 percentage points year-on-year [2]. Product and Regional Performance - The cave series, representing mid-to-high-end liquor, maintained relatively leading growth, with revenue of 5.713 billion yuan in 2024, up 14% year-on-year (volume +9%, price +4%), and a gross margin of 81.07%, an increase of 1.8 percentage points year-on-year. Conversely, ordinary liquor revenue was 1.29 billion yuan, down 7% year-on-year (volume -10%, price +3%) [3]. - Regionally, the company reported 5.093 billion yuan in revenue from within the province in 2024, up 13% year-on-year, while revenue from outside the province was 1.909 billion yuan, up 1% year-on-year. The proportion of revenue from within the province increased to 72.7% [3]. Strategic Outlook - The company plans to continue a rational growth trajectory in 2025, with the product structure expected to be driven by the cave series. The dividend rate is projected to remain stable at around 46% for 2024, with a corresponding dividend yield of approximately 3.4% based on the closing price on April 30 [4].