Exness：2025年第2季度，幻象与现实

Core Viewpoint - The financial markets are experiencing significant shifts due to capital rotation, increasing political risks, and a more segmented market environment, leading to varied performances across asset classes [2][16]. Group 1: Market Overview - In Q1, aggressive deleveraging occurred in the US and cryptocurrency markets, influenced by unexpected tariffs imposed by President Trump on Canada, Mexico, the EU, and China [3]. - The Nasdaq and S&P 500 indices saw substantial declines, while European indices like the DAX reached historical highs, indicating a shift in capital from US equities to overseas assets [3]. - The fear and greed index dropped from 66 (greed) to 20 (extreme fear) by March, reflecting market sentiment [8]. Group 2: Asset Performance - Gold emerged as the standout asset in Q1, with prices soaring to $3,000 per ounce, driven by political and trade tensions, alongside a dovish stance from central banks [9]. - The oil market remains uncertain, with prices fluctuating due to increased supply from Kazakhstan and the US, while demand concerns persist [10]. - The US stock market is under pressure, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq indices falling below key moving averages, while European and Asian indices show strength [11]. Group 3: Currency Movements - The Euro has rebounded against the dollar, influenced by discussions on increased military spending and rising bond yields in Germany [4][14]. - The Japanese Yen is gaining attractiveness as a safe-haven asset, with inflation rates exceeding the Bank of Japan's target and long-term bond yields surpassing 2.5% [5][15]. - The forex market has been active, with the Euro and Yen strengthening, while the dollar's performance remains mixed amid tariff chaos and economic signals [13]. Group 4: Key Themes for Q2 - Capital is rotating from the US to Europe and Asia, driven by uncertainty and trade policies [16]. - Despite market declines, volatility remains low, indicating investor hesitation rather than panic selling [17]. - Safe-haven assets like gold and the Yen continue to attract inflows, while speculative risk assets face a challenging environment [17].