摩根大通：两大因素束缚了美联储的手脚！

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that President Trump is increasingly urging the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates, but the Fed is in a difficult position with low likelihood of rate cuts in the near future [1] - JPMorgan analysts indicate that the Fed is constrained in its monetary policy due to rising inflation expectations and the impact of Trump's tariff policies [1][5] - The latest consumer inflation report shows a year-over-year increase of 2.4% in March, exceeding the Fed's 2% target, with one-year inflation expectations at 6.5% according to the University of Michigan [2] Group 2 - Concerns over the trade war are driving up consumer costs, contributing to rising inflation expectations and increasing the risk of stagflation, where economic growth stagnates while prices continue to rise [5] - Despite soft data like future inflation expectations potentially posing issues for investors, strong hard data, including a positive April non-farm payroll report, is currently overshadowing these concerns [5] - The S&P 500 index's forward P/E ratio is at 21, with expected EPS growth of 10% this year and 14% next year, indicating that investors are not pricing in a potential recession [8]