Tesla(US:TSLA) 智通财经网·2025-05-07 07:53Group 1 - Goldman Sachs assigns a "Neutral" rating to Tesla (TSLA.US) with a target price of $235, emphasizing the importance of Tesla's Full Self-Driving (FSD) software capabilities in the Chinese market for its future performance [1] - China has become Tesla's largest automotive market globally, with significant new car sales over the past year, partly due to the country's large automotive market size and high Battery Electric Vehicle (BEV) penetration rate, which has exceeded 30% [1] - Tesla's market share in China remains stable at a high single-digit percentage, while its BEV market share in the U.S. has dropped to about 45% and to low double digits in Europe [1] Group 2 - Tesla's FSD faces competition from local rivals that offer Advanced Driver Assistance Systems (ADAS) as standard on mainstream models, such as NIO's NAD service and Xpeng's XNGP, which exert competitive pressure on Tesla's FSD [1] - The level of Tesla's FSD technology and its cost improvements relative to competitors will be crucial for its long-term economic viability in the autonomous driving sector [1] - Tesla's consumer research scores in China are higher than in North America and Europe, particularly in "net purchase consideration" and "net favorability" metrics [2] Group 3 - Goldman Sachs will monitor whether Tesla's consumer research scores in North America and Europe improve with CEO Elon Musk's renewed involvement in company affairs and the introduction of new models planned for 2025 [2] - The $235 target price is based on an estimated 100 times price-to-earnings ratio for earnings per share from Q4 2025 to Q4 2028 [2] - In a pessimistic scenario, if sales growth slows and profit margin improvements are below expectations, the stock price could drop to around $150; conversely, in an optimistic scenario, the stock price could reach approximately $345 if the non-GAAP earnings per share in 2027 is applied with a 100 times price-to-earnings ratio [2]