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亚洲货币集体大涨,全球资金急寻“避风港”
2 1 Shi Ji Jing Ji Bao Dao·2025-05-07 08:03

Core Viewpoint - Asian currencies have experienced a rare collective appreciation against the US dollar, driven by various economic factors and a shift in global capital flows towards Asian bonds [1][2][3]. Group 1: Currency Performance - From May 1 to 7, the MSCI Emerging Market Currency Index rose by 2.3%, with significant gains in currencies such as the Singapore dollar (up 1.41%), Thai baht (up 2.5%), and South Korean won (up 3.8%) [1][2]. - The US dollar index fell to 99.5 on May 7, down 9.4% from above 110 at the beginning of the year, indicating a weakening trend [1]. Group 2: Economic Factors - The decline in the US dollar is attributed to several factors, including lowered economic growth expectations, trade war-induced stagflation concerns, and rising yield premiums on US debt [1][3]. - The concept of "reciprocal tariffs" proposed by the US has raised inflation concerns, further impacting the dollar's strength [3][5]. Group 3: Capital Flows - In March, Asian bonds attracted the largest monthly foreign capital inflow in seven months, totaling $7.16 billion, indicating a shift in investor preference towards Asian assets [6]. - Countries like India, Thailand, and the Philippines have lowered interest rates in response to the US's tariff policies, further enhancing the attractiveness of Asian bonds [7]. Group 4: Regional Economic Integration - The acceleration of regional economic integration in the Asia-Pacific, including trade agreements like RCEP, is making Asian assets more appealing to foreign investors [9]. - The ongoing shift towards "de-dollarization" is prompting central banks in Asia to diversify their reserve assets away from the US dollar [5][10]. Group 5: Future Outlook - The future trajectory of Asian currencies will depend on the stability of US trade policies and the progress of trade negotiations [10]. - Despite the current strength of Asian currencies, there are concerns about potential corrections and the impact of ongoing trade tensions on capital flows [10].