我们真的会有全民出海潮吗，已经走到了哪一步？

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the significant growth of China's overseas revenue in 2024, indicating a potential wave of companies expanding internationally, contrasting with the domestic market's decline [1][4][5]. Group 1: Overseas Revenue Growth - In the first half of 2024, China's listed companies' overseas revenue surpassed 3.8 trillion, matching the total for 2018, indicating a doubling of overseas business in just six years [1]. - China's listed companies' overseas revenue grew nearly 10% in 2024, marking the first time it exceeded 10 trillion, accounting for 13.8% of total revenue [4]. - The gap between domestic and overseas revenue growth is approaching 10%, similar to the conditions preceding Japan's outflow in the 1990s [5]. Group 2: Comparison with Japan's Outflow - The article draws parallels between the current situation in China and Japan's outflow in the 1990s, noting that both countries experienced a significant shift in revenue sources before a large-scale international expansion [3][6]. - Japan's outflow was characterized by a transition from domestic revenue decline to overseas revenue growth, a pattern now observed in China [3]. Group 3: Manufacturing and Cultural Outflow - China's manufacturing sector is expected to experience a golden decade of overseas expansion from 2024 to 2034, similar to Japan's experience from 1994 to 2004 [13][14]. - The manufacturing sector's overseas investment is projected to exceed $300 billion in 2024, with automotive and equipment industries leading the charge [15]. - Cultural outflow from China is progressing faster than Japan's, with brands like Pop Mart and Miniso achieving significant overseas success [24][25]. Group 4: Opportunities for Individuals - The article highlights the potential for individuals to benefit from the ongoing outflow, particularly through localization efforts by companies, which may create new job opportunities abroad [16][18]. - The demand for high-educated talent is increasing, with 86% of overseas job postings requiring a bachelor's degree or higher [20]. Group 5: Future Outlook - The dual outflow of industry and culture is expected to create a new wave of opportunities in China, potentially leading to a "cultural dividend" similar to Japan's experience post-2005 [27][28]. - The article concludes that despite global challenges, the trend of Chinese companies expanding overseas is likely to continue, supported by initiatives like the Belt and Road [29][30].