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九州通(600998):经营韧性强 看好“三新两化”持续兑现

Performance - In 2024, the company achieved total operating revenue of 151.81 billion, a year-on-year increase of 1.11%; net profit attributable to shareholders was 2.51 billion, up 15.33%; and net profit excluding non-recurring items was 1.81 billion, down 7.47% [1] - In Q1 2025, total operating revenue reached 42.02 billion, a year-on-year increase of 3.82%; net profit attributable to shareholders was 970 million, a significant increase of 80.38%; and net profit excluding non-recurring items was 507 million, down 2.76% [1] Growth Potential - The company successfully launched its REITs, marking a new chapter in light asset operations, with the public offering of pharmaceutical warehousing logistics REITs raising 1.16 billion on February 27, 2025 [2] - The CSO business continued to grow, achieving sales revenue of 19.27 billion, with pharmaceutical CSO revenue at 10.77 billion, a year-on-year increase of 19.59% after adjusting for high base effects [2] New Retail and New Medical - The "Good Pharmacist" franchise rapidly expanded, reaching 29,331 stores by the end of March 2025, with sales to franchise pharmacies amounting to 5.39 billion, a year-on-year increase of 54.94% [3] - The "Nine Medical Clinics" membership stores reached 1,377 by the end of March 2025, utilizing AI-assisted diagnostic platforms to empower grassroots medical institutions [3] Profitability - The overall gross margin for 2024 was 7.80%, a decrease of 0.27 percentage points, while Q1 gross margin was 7.33%, an increase of 0.13 percentage points [4] - The net profit margin attributable to shareholders for 2024 was 1.65%, an increase of approximately 0.21 percentage points, with Q1 2025 net profit margin at 2.31%, a significant increase of 0.98 percentage points [4] Operating Quality - The net cash flow from operating activities in 2024 was 3.08 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 35.07%, primarily due to increased procurement payments from strategic cooperation with core suppliers [5] - By Q1 2025, the company's operating cash flow remained stable year-on-year, with slight increases in accounts receivable turnover days and inventory turnover days [5] Profit Forecast and Valuation - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 163.29 billion, 176.46 billion, and 190.08 billion, with corresponding growth rates of 7.56%, 8.06%, and 7.72% [6] - Expected net profits attributable to shareholders for the same period are 2.84 billion, 3.18 billion, and 3.54 billion, with year-on-year growth rates of 13.13%, 12.08%, and 11.21% [6]