King's Luck(SH:603369) Xin Lang Cai Jing·2025-05-07 08:38Core Viewpoint - The company reported a revenue increase of 14.31% year-on-year for 2024, with total revenue reaching 11.546 billion yuan and a net profit of 3.412 billion yuan, reflecting an 8.8% increase [1][2] Group 1: Financial Performance - In Q4 2024, total revenue was 1.604 billion yuan, a decrease of 7.56% year-on-year, and net profit was 326 million yuan, down 34.84% [1] - For Q1 2025, total revenue was 5.099 billion yuan, an increase of 9.17% year-on-year, with a net profit of 1.644 billion yuan, up 7.27% [1] - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 1.2 yuan per share, totaling 1.496 billion yuan, with a payout ratio of approximately 43.85% [1] Group 2: Product and Regional Performance - In 2024, revenue from different product categories was as follows: Special A+ products 7.49 billion yuan (+15.2%), Special A products 3.35 billion yuan (+16.6%), A products 420 million yuan (+2.0%), and B products 140 million yuan (-11.1%) [2] - The overall white liquor sales volume increased by 19.5% year-on-year, while the average price decreased by 4.3%, indicating a shift in product structure [2] - Revenue by region in 2024 showed growth in key markets: Huai'an 2.24 billion yuan (+12.3%), Nanjing 2.63 billion yuan (+11.7%), and significant growth in Suzhong (+21.2%) [2] Group 3: Profitability Metrics - The gross margin for 2024 was 74.7%, down 3.6 percentage points year-on-year, while for Q1 2025, it was 73.6%, down 0.6 percentage points [3] - The net profit margin for 2024 was 29.6%, decreasing by 1.5 percentage points year-on-year, and for Q1 2025, it was 32.2%, down 0.6 percentage points [3] - As of Q1 2025, contract liabilities were 540 million yuan, showing a year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter decline, likely due to proactive channel management [3] Group 4: Future Outlook - The company aims for a revenue growth of 5%-12% in 2025, with net profit growth slightly lower than revenue growth [4] - The net profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 have been revised down by 12% and 14% to 3.66 billion yuan and 4.00 billion yuan, respectively, with a new forecast for 2027 at 4.38 billion yuan [4] - The current price-to-earnings ratio is projected at 16, 15, and 13 times for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, indicating a positive outlook for market share growth [4]