芒果超媒(300413)：会员业务良性增长 25Q1综艺剧集双收

Core Insights - The company reported a decline in both revenue and net profit for 2024, with total revenue at 14.08 billion yuan, down 3.75% year-on-year, and net profit attributable to shareholders at 1.364 billion yuan, down 61.63% due to a one-time tax asset reversal [1] - In Q1 2025, the company continued to experience revenue decline, with total revenue at 2.9 billion yuan, down 12.76% year-on-year, and net profit attributable to shareholders at 379 million yuan, down 19.80% [1] - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 2.2 yuan per 10 shares, totaling 412 million yuan [1] Business Performance - The company's Mango TV internet video business revenue decreased by 4.10% to 10.179 billion yuan in 2024, with membership business showing healthy growth, increasing revenue by 19.30% to 5.148 billion yuan [2] - The advertising business saw a slight recovery but still declined by 2.66% to 3.438 billion yuan, while the operation business faced a significant drop of 42.44% to 1.593 billion yuan due to industry governance impacts [2] - The new media interactive entertainment content production business grew by 9.77% to 1.262 billion yuan, and the content e-commerce business revenue decreased by 7.87% to 2.6 billion yuan, with a GMV of 16.1 billion yuan [2] Content and Production - In Q1 2025, the company had six variety shows in the effective viewing TOP 10, leading among long video platforms, and increased investment in drama series by 12% [3] - The company has over 100 drama series in reserve, which is expected to drive future business growth [3] - The company's gross margin for 2024 was 29.03%, down 3.95 percentage points, and net margin was 9.54%, down 14.19 percentage points, primarily due to the one-time tax asset reversal [3] Future Outlook - The company anticipates a positive impact from tax policy changes from 2025 to 2027, which will benefit profits [4] - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 14.608 billion yuan, 15.438 billion yuan, and 16.448 billion yuan respectively, with net profits of 1.839 billion yuan, 2.045 billion yuan, and 2.408 billion yuan [4] - The company maintains a "buy" rating with projected EPS of 0.98, 1.09, and 1.29 for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, and corresponding PE ratios of 23, 21, and 18 [4]