亚洲货币暴涨，美元还会继续被抛售吗

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in Asian currencies, including the New Taiwan Dollar and Hong Kong Dollar, is attributed to a potential sell-off of US dollars by Asian countries, which could lead to significant downward pressure on the US dollar, estimated at $2.5 trillion [2][4][5]. Currency Movements - The New Taiwan Dollar experienced a dramatic increase of 10% over two days, marking its highest level since February 2023 and the largest single-day gain in 37 years [4]. - The Hong Kong Dollar triggered its strong-side convertibility guarantee three times since May 3, with the Hong Kong Monetary Authority injecting a total of HKD 116.6 billion into the market [3][4]. - The offshore Chinese Yuan rose by nearly 0.91%, reaching its highest level since November of the previous year [2]. Economic Factors - Stephen Jen, a prominent economist, warned that the sell-off of US dollars by Asian countries could lead to a significant depreciation of the dollar, aligning with his previous predictions regarding the Yuan's appreciation [2][5]. - The weakening of the US dollar is linked to reduced growth expectations for the US economy, with recent economic data indicating a downturn and increasing speculation about potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [4][5]. Market Reactions - The surge in Asian currencies is seen as a reaction to the declining attractiveness of dollar assets, prompting companies with large dollar holdings to sell off their dollars and convert to local currencies [5][6]. - Goldman Sachs reported that the dollar is currently overvalued by approximately 15%, suggesting that as the US returns diminish, the dollar's overvaluation may gradually correct [5][6]. Future Projections - If the US current account deficit decreases significantly, it could lead to substantial adjustments in the dollar's value, with potential depreciations of 16.5% to 31% depending on the extent of the deficit reduction [6].