为何此时降准降息？年内还会降准吗？专家解读央行十大货币政策

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has announced a comprehensive set of monetary policies aimed at stabilizing the market and expectations, including interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio (RRR) reductions [1][2]. Group 1: Monetary Policy Adjustments - The PBOC is implementing timely adjustments to the RRR and interest rates in response to domestic and international economic conditions, particularly due to external shocks such as increased tariffs from the U.S. [2][3]. - The reduction in the RRR is expected to release more liquidity, which will help stabilize market expectations and support key sectors such as infrastructure, small and medium-sized enterprises, and the real estate market [3][4]. Group 2: Future Expectations - There is potential for further RRR cuts within the year, with estimates suggesting a total reduction of 0.75-1.0 percentage points by 2025, indicating that an additional 0.25-0.5 percentage points may be possible in the third quarter [5][6]. - The current average RRR for commercial banks will decrease from 6.6% to 6.2% following the recent cut, suggesting that there is still room for further reductions in the future [6]. Group 3: Policy Tools and Structure - The announced monetary policies include a mix of quantity-based, price-based, and structural tools, with a focus on addressing both short-term and long-term economic needs [8][9]. - Specific measures include a 0.1 percentage point reduction in policy interest rates and a 0.25 percentage point cut in personal housing provident fund loan rates, alongside the establishment of new structural monetary policy tools [7][8]. - The structural policies are designed to address various challenges in the economy and finance, with six out of ten policies focusing on structural adjustments, which are expected to have a significant cumulative effect [9].