特朗普变脸太快，投资者现在不看“硬数据”，看“心情”

Core Viewpoint - The volatility of U.S. trade policies is leading investors to increasingly rely on "soft data" for decision-making, as traditional "hard data" indicators become outdated in a rapidly changing environment [1][2]. Group 1: Shift to Soft Data - Investors are turning to sentiment surveys and other forms of soft data to gauge current conditions, as hard indicators like unemployment rates and retail sales lag behind [1]. - Cresset Capital's CIO Jack Ablin emphasizes the need for soft data to understand the present situation due to a lack of real-time information [1]. - Reflection Asset Management's CIO Jason Britton notes that consumer sentiment is crucial, as poor consumer feelings can lead to reduced spending and economic harm [2]. Group 2: Divergence of Signals - There is a noted divergence between signals from hard data and soft data, which can sometimes fail to accurately depict future economic conditions [2]. - In 2022, despite a drop in consumer confidence, strong labor markets and household balance sheets led to continued consumer spending, contradicting recession predictions [2]. Group 3: Alternative Data Sources - Some market participants are seeking alternative indicators beyond traditional surveys, with Duke University professor Campbell Harvey highlighting the importance of new data sources during uncertain times [3]. - Harvey points to predictive markets like Polymarket, where users bet on various economic events, as valuable insights based on real-world interactions [3]. - Glenmede's Mike Reynolds is exploring new metrics, such as international tourist spending in the U.S., to assess the impact of tariffs [3][4]. Group 4: Caution on Soft Data - Despite the trend towards soft data, some experts, including U.S. Treasury Secretary Yellen, advocate for focusing on hard data, which they believe provides a more accurate economic picture [5]. - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell acknowledges the tension between hard and soft data, indicating that both will be considered in future rate decisions [5]. - Goldman Sachs' chief economist Jan Hatzius warns against over-reliance on soft data, as it may reflect sentiment rather than actual economic activity, potentially leading to false alarms [5].