联合国预测：中国人口迅速减少，将成为全球面对的最大挑战！

Group 1 - The United Nations predicts that China's population will drop below 1.3 billion by 2050, which poses significant challenges for China and may trigger a global economic restructuring [1] - In 2023, the number of newborns in China fell below 9 million, only 60% of the figure in 2016, indicating a severe decline in birth rates [3] - The total fertility rate has plummeted to 1.3, far below the replacement level of 2.1, and is lower than South Korea's by 0.2 [4] Group 2 - The cost of raising a child in China is 6.9 times the per capita GDP, the highest globally, with costs in major cities equivalent to the price of three small apartments [4] - By the end of 2023, the elderly population (60 years and older) reached 280 million, accounting for 20% of the total population, and is expected to exceed 500 million by 2050 [4] - The working-age population (ages 15-59) has been declining since its peak of 920 million in 2012 and is projected to drop to 700 million by 2050, equivalent to the entire population of Brazil [4] Group 3 - The shrinking labor force is straining the social security system, with a projected shortfall of 1.2 trillion yuan in the national pension fund by 2024 [4] - The disappearance of the demographic dividend is reshaping the economic fundamentals, with a reduction of 12 million manufacturing jobs over the past decade, while automation has increased by 300% [4] - In 2023, the growth rate of retail sales of consumer goods fell to 2.1%, the lowest in 30 years, with elderly consumption surpassing 25% for the first time [4] Group 4 - The global repercussions of this demographic crisis are becoming evident, as China's labor force contraction may lead to a restructuring of global supply chains [5] - Countries like India and Vietnam are taking over labor-intensive industries, but their GDP per capita is only one-fifth of China's, making it difficult to fill the capacity gap in the short term [5] - By 2050, half of the global population growth is expected to come from Africa, which will alter the geopolitical economic landscape, potentially reducing China's share of the global economy from 18% to 12% [5] Group 5 - Addressing this crisis requires extraordinary measures, as seen in Japan's "Society 5.0" initiative, which aims to increase manufacturing productivity by 40% [5] - China's "talent dividend" strategy aims to raise the average education level of the working-age population to 12.5 years by 2035, but such transformations will take time [5] - Current birth support policies in China are inadequate, with a monthly subsidy of 500 yuan for families with three children being only 1/40 of the cost of hiring a nanny in Beijing [5] Group 6 - The ultimate test of this demographic shift lies in whether China can convert its population advantage of 1.4 billion into a quality dividend [6] - As automation becomes the norm and the elderly population exceeds 40%, the question remains whether China can find a different path to transformation compared to Japan and South Korea [7]