Upstart Stock Drops Despite Q1 Beat: Analysts Highlight AI Progress, Warn Of Inflation Risks
UpstartUpstart(US:UPST) Benzinga·2025-05-07 17:14

Core Insights - Upstart Holdings, Inc. reported first-quarter earnings of 30 cents per share, exceeding the analyst consensus estimate of 17 cents, with quarterly revenue of $213.37 million, up from $127.79 million year-over-year, and beating the consensus estimate of $199.49 million [1][3] Group 1: Financial Performance - The company achieved a revenue increase of 66.9% year-over-year, reflecting strong growth in its lending operations [1] - Upstart slightly raised its full-year revenue outlook, primarily driven by interest income, and increased its EBITDA margin guidance by 100 basis points [3] - Analysts project revenue growth of +58.9% in FY25 and +25.8% in FY26 [4] Group 2: Analyst Perspectives - JPMorgan noted that Upstart is experiencing a flywheel effect, where improved repayment data enhances risk detection, leading to higher loan approval rates and overall volume [1] - Piper Sandler highlighted the potential of Upstart's AI-driven lending platform, especially as the loan funding environment improves, and noted that over half of its originations are now supported by committed capital partners [2] - Analysts have differing ratings, with JPMorgan maintaining a Neutral rating and lowering the price forecast from $79 to $64, while Piper Sandler maintained an Overweight rating with a price forecast of $69 [5]