Company Performance - Upstart Holdings, Inc. closed at $78.36, reflecting a +1.01% change from the previous day, outperforming the S&P 500's 0.01% loss [1] - The company's shares have increased by 31.31% over the past month, while the Finance sector and S&P 500 gained 4.74% and 5.37%, respectively [1] Upcoming Earnings - Upstart Holdings, Inc. is set to announce its earnings on August 5, 2025, with projected earnings of $0.27 per share, indicating a year-over-year growth of 258.82% [2] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for revenue is $225.3 million, representing a 76.52% increase from the previous year [2] Full Year Projections - For the full year, earnings are projected at $1.58 per share and revenue at $1.02 billion, showing increases of +890% and +59.46% from the prior year [3] Analyst Estimates - Recent adjustments to analyst estimates for Upstart Holdings, Inc. reflect evolving short-term business trends, with positive revisions indicating a favorable outlook on business health and profitability [4] Zacks Rank and Valuation - Upstart Holdings, Inc. currently holds a Zacks Rank of 3 (Hold), with the Zacks Consensus EPS estimate remaining steady over the past month [6] - The company is trading at a Forward P/E ratio of 49.16, significantly higher than the industry average of 12.66, indicating a premium valuation [7] Industry Context - The Financial - Miscellaneous Services industry, part of the Finance sector, ranks in the top 37% of all industries according to the Zacks Industry Rank [7] - The top 50% rated industries outperform the bottom half by a factor of 2 to 1, highlighting the competitive positioning of the industry [8]

The artificial intelligence boom is a multitrillion-dollar investment opportunity, without question. But it isn't the only one. A massive opportunity in the real estate sector could be hiding in plain sight.Consider this. After a surge in mortgage refinancing in the 2020-2021 timeframe, interest rates soared, and refinancing volume dried up. With the majority of U.S. homeowners having mortgage rates under 5%, it no longer made financial sense to refinance at 7% or higher in order to tap into home equity. Th ...

Core Insights - The fintech landscape is evolving, with PayPal and Upstart Holdings emerging as significant players in different sectors [1][2][3] PayPal Overview - PayPal is transitioning from a transactional payment provider to a comprehensive commerce platform, focusing on user experience and international expansion [4][6] - Despite a nearly 14% decline in stock year-to-date, core operating metrics show resilience, with transaction margin dollars up 7% year-over-year and Venmo revenues increasing by 20% [5][3] - The Buy Now, Pay Later (BNPL) segment is performing well, with volumes rising over 20% and monthly active accounts increasing by 18% year-over-year [5] - PayPal is expanding internationally, with initiatives in Germany and the U.K., and partnerships with Coinbase, Amazon, and Shopify enhancing growth prospects [6][4] - Short-term pressures on margins are anticipated due to investments in modernization and competition from major players like Visa and Mastercard [7] Upstart Overview - Upstart is leveraging AI to disrupt traditional credit underwriting, automating 92% of loans in Q1 2025 and increasing conversion rates from 14% to 19% year-over-year [8][10] - The company is diversifying its offerings beyond personal loans into auto refinancing and HELOCs, with auto originations up 42% and HELOCs up 52% sequentially [10] - Upstart's marketplace model has diversified funding sources, with over 50% of volume backed by committed capital, and credit quality is improving with 32% of originations from super-prime borrowers [10][8] - Challenges include lower take rates due to competition and initial modest margins in newer products, alongside macroeconomic uncertainties [11] Financial Estimates - PayPal's 2025 sales and EPS are expected to rise by 2.9% and 9.5% respectively, with EPS estimates trending upward [12] - Upstart's 2025 sales are projected to increase by 59.46%, with EPS estimates also showing positive trends [13] Valuation Comparison - PayPal shares are considered undervalued with a Value Score of B, trading at a forward Price/Sales ratio of 2.1X [15] - Upstart shares are viewed as overvalued with a Value Score of F, trading at a forward Price/Sales ratio of 6.03X [15] Performance Insights - Over the past month, Upstart has outperformed PayPal and the S&P 500 composite [16] Conclusion - Both companies have unique strengths, with Upstart's rapid growth driven by AI innovation, while PayPal offers stability and a mature global payment infrastructure [19][20] - PayPal's diversified growth drivers and strategic evolution position it as a more reliable choice for investors seeking resilient growth [20][21]

Group 1 - Upstart Holdings, Inc. operates at the intersection of fintech and AI, indicating strong growth potential in these sectors [1] - The company is positioning itself to leverage the combination of these technologies for future success [1] Group 2 - The article emphasizes the importance of core values such as excellence, integrity, transparency, and respect for long-term success in the investment landscape [1]

Core Insights - Upstart Holdings, Inc. (UPST) has experienced a significant rebound driven by investor optimism regarding its AI-driven lending platform and strategic execution [1] - The company is disrupting traditional credit models by utilizing machine learning for enhanced consumer loan underwriting [1] Valuation Concerns - Upstart currently has a Value Score of F, indicating potential overvaluation, with a forward 12-month Price/Sales ratio of 5.23, which is above the industry average of 3.86 [2] - This valuation premium has led to increased caution among investors, raising questions about the justification for the stock's recent surge [2] Technological Advancements - Upstart is reshaping credit underwriting with its proprietary AI model that incorporates education, employment, and financial behavior, moving beyond traditional FICO scores [3] - In Q1 2025, 92% of loans on its platform were fully automated, resulting in improved efficiency and borrower satisfaction, with conversion rates increasing from 14% to 19% year over year [3][9] Diversification Efforts - The company is diversifying into new verticals such as auto loans, HELOCs, and small-dollar credit, with some segments showing robust growth [4] - Partnerships with credit unions, like All In Credit Union, demonstrate Upstart's appeal in traditional finance [4] - The focus on super-prime borrowers, now constituting 32% of originations, aids in securing low-cost funding and managing credit risk effectively [4] Challenges Faced - Elevated interest rates and a decline in contribution margins are significant challenges for the company [5] - The increasing super-prime borrower mix, while enhancing credit quality, leads to lower take rates due to heightened competition [5] - Margins in newer products like HELOC and auto lending are expected to mature over time, with initial take rates being modest due to early-stage scaling [5] - Macroeconomic uncertainty and trade tensions further complicate the company's outlook [5] Market Performance - Upstart's shares have risen by 37.8% quarter to date, outperforming both the broader industry and the S&P 500 Index [12] - The full-year 2025 consensus EPS estimate has been slightly revised downward, while the 2026 estimate has been adjusted upward [13]

Core Insights - Upstart Holdings, Inc. (UPST) has achieved a 40.1% gain in the current quarter, outperforming the Zacks Financial – Miscellaneous Services industry's 18.7% increase, establishing itself as a standout performer compared to peers like LendingClub and Enova International [1][7]. Business Model and Growth - Upstart is transforming consumer lending through artificial intelligence, replacing traditional FICO scores with a more predictive model that considers factors such as education and employment history [2][4]. - In Q1 2025, 92% of loans on Upstart's platform were fully automated, showcasing high efficiency and borrower experience [4]. - The company has expanded its offerings beyond personal loans into auto refinancing, HELOCs, and small-dollar loans, with auto loan originations increasing by 42% sequentially and HELOCs rising by 52% [5]. Market Position and Strategy - Upstart's focus on super-prime borrowers, now constituting 32% of originations, helps reduce credit risk and enhances access to low-cost funding [6]. - The marketplace model diversifies funding sources, with over 50% of loan volume backed by committed capital [6]. Technological Innovation - Upstart's AI innovation, including the integration of advanced machine-learning methods, enhances credit evaluations by detecting nuanced behavioral patterns among borrowers [7][8]. - The company plans to launch its first machine-learning model for loan servicing to improve operational efficiency and reduce default rates [9]. Financial Performance and Valuation - Recent estimate revisions show mixed trends, with the full-year 2025 EPS consensus slightly down and 2026 estimates adjusted upward [11]. - Upstart shares are currently trading at a forward 12-month Price/Sales (P/S) ratio of 5.24X, above the industry average of 3.85X, indicating a premium valuation compared to major fintech rivals [13]. Long-term Outlook - Despite short-term macro risks, Upstart's unique technology, expanding loan mix, and improving profitability position it as a compelling long-term investment in the fintech sector [14].

Group 1 - Upstart Holdings Inc (NASDAQ:UPST) is experiencing a breakout above its June closing highs, surpassing its 200-day moving average and year-to-date anchored volume-weighted average price (AVWAP) [1] - The stock has bounced near peak put open interest at the 50-strike and is now breaking above the $55 pivot point from a November earnings gap, which has previously acted as both support and resistance [1] - The 65-strike call option is set to expire next week, potentially leading to higher prices as shorts begin to cover, with over 25% of UPST's total available float sold short [2] Group 2 - The Schaeffer's Volatility Index (SVI) for UPST is in the 10th percentile of its annual range, indicating that options traders can acquire premiums at a relative bargain [2] - A recommended call option has a leverage ratio of 3.7, suggesting it will double in value with a 29.1% move in the underlying equity [3]

Group 1 - Upstart Holdings, Inc. closed at $63.35, with a +1.46% increase, outperforming the S&P 500's gain of 0.8% [1] - Over the past month, Upstart's shares have risen by 32.82%, significantly exceeding the Finance sector's gain of 2.69% and the S&P 500's gain of 5.12% [1] Group 2 - The upcoming earnings disclosure for Upstart is projected to show an EPS of $0.27, a 258.82% increase year-over-year, and revenue of $226.12 million, reflecting a 77.17% increase compared to the same quarter last year [2] - For the entire year, Zacks Consensus Estimates forecast earnings of $1.56 per share and revenue of $1.01 billion, indicating increases of +880% and +58.99% respectively compared to the previous year [3] Group 3 - Recent changes in analyst estimates for Upstart indicate positive sentiment regarding the company's business and profitability [4] - The Zacks Rank system, which includes estimate changes, has shown that 1 rated stocks have generated an average annual return of +25% since 1988, with Upstart currently holding a Zacks Rank of 3 (Hold) [5][6] Group 4 - Upstart is currently trading at a Forward P/E ratio of 40.03, which is a premium compared to the industry average Forward P/E of 11.65 [7] - The Financial - Miscellaneous Services industry, part of the Finance sector, has a Zacks Industry Rank of 91, placing it in the top 37% of over 250 industries [7][8]

Core Viewpoint - Current high-performing AI stocks may underperform in the next year according to select analysts [1][2] Group 1: Palantir Technologies - Palantir Technologies has seen a significant increase of over 2,000% since the beginning of 2023, attributed to its unique software platforms [4] - Analyst Rishi Jaluria from RBC Capital Markets predicts a 71% decline in Palantir's stock price, targeting $40 from a closing price of $137.30 on June 20 [5] - The company's price-to-sales (P/S) ratio stands at 110, which is significantly higher than the historical bubble-bursting range of 30 to 40 [6] - Palantir's stock is vulnerable to a potential AI bubble burst, despite its long-term contracts with the U.S. government [7] - The Gotham platform's growth is limited by the small number of federal governments that can utilize it, raising concerns about its high valuation [8] Group 2: Upstart Holdings - Upstart Holdings, an AI-driven lending platform, is expected to see a 72% decline in stock price, with a target of $16.50 from its current price [10][11] - The company has rallied 165% over the past year, but its ability to withstand economic downturns remains unproven [12] - Upstart's model is sensitive to Federal Reserve monetary policy changes, which can impact loan demand [13] - The stock is valued at 39 times forecast earnings per share (EPS) for the current year, raising concerns about its high valuation given the cyclical nature of financial stocks [14] Group 3: CoreWeave - CoreWeave, an AI data-center infrastructure company, is projected to decline by 80%, with a target price of $36 [15][16] - The rapid depreciation of assets due to advancements in AI technology poses a risk to CoreWeave's valuation [17] - Concerns about the company's financing structure suggest that debtholders may have more control than shareholders [18] - Despite anticipated sales growth of 131% next year, CoreWeave's valuation at close to 8 times sales is considered excessive for an unproven business model [19]

Company Performance - Upstart Holdings, Inc. closed at $58.01, down 1.81% from the previous trading session, underperforming the S&P 500 which lost 0.22% [1] - Prior to this trading day, shares had gained 29.48%, outperforming the Finance sector's loss of 1.59% and the S&P 500's gain of 0.45% [1] Upcoming Earnings - The upcoming earnings release is highly anticipated, with projected EPS of $0.28, representing a 264.71% increase year-over-year [2] - Revenue is estimated at $226.38 million, reflecting a 77.37% increase from the same quarter last year [2] Fiscal Year Estimates - For the entire fiscal year, earnings are projected at $1.57 per share and revenue at $1.01 billion, indicating increases of 885% and 58.79% respectively from the previous year [3] - Recent analyst estimate revisions suggest optimism regarding the company's business and profitability [3] Zacks Rank and Valuation - Upstart Holdings, Inc. currently holds a Zacks Rank of 3 (Hold), with the Zacks Consensus EPS estimate remaining unchanged over the past month [5] - The company has a Forward P/E ratio of 37.71, significantly higher than the industry average of 11.07, indicating it is trading at a premium [6] Industry Context - The Financial - Miscellaneous Services industry, part of the Finance sector, has a Zacks Industry Rank of 143, placing it in the bottom 42% of over 250 industries [6] - The strength of industry groups is measured by the Zacks Industry Rank, with top-rated industries outperforming the bottom half by a factor of 2 to 1 [7]