Core Insights - Upstart Holdings (UPST) is expected to report its Q4 and full-year 2025 results on February 10, with anticipated growth in revenues and earnings per share [1][7] - The company has a strong history of surpassing earnings estimates, having done so in the last four quarters [2] Financial Performance Expectations - Management has guided for Q4 revenues of approximately $288 million, reflecting sequential growth despite typical holiday seasonality [3] - Fee revenues are projected to be around $262 million, with net interest income expected at about $26 million [3] - For Q4, adjusted EBITDA is anticipated to be approximately $63 million, with GAAP net income around $17 million and adjusted net income near $52 million [3] Profitability Metrics - Contribution margin is expected to moderate to about 53%, indicating a shift towards optimizing customer lifetime value rather than maximizing short-term margins [4] Funding and Growth Potential - Upstart has secured a $1.5 billion forward-flow agreement with Castlelake, enhancing its lending capacity and reducing balance sheet exposure [5] - The company is also seeing growth in newer verticals such as auto and home loans, which are becoming significant contributors to overall volume and revenues [5] Revenue Estimates - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Q4 revenues is set at $288.47 million, representing a 31.74% increase year-over-year [6] - For the full year 2025, total revenues are projected to be about $1.035 billion, with fee revenues of roughly $946 million and net interest income of approximately $89 million [8] Earnings Projections - The consensus estimate for full-year EPS stands at $1.68, indicating a significant increase from a loss of 20 cents in the previous year [9]

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Many fintech stocks lost their luster over the past year as inflation, high interest rates, and other macro headwinds throttled the industry's growth. Intense competition across the market also made it difficult for smaller players to scale up their businesses and improve margins. However, that sell-off might represent a good buying opportunity for investors who can tune out the near-term noise and plan to hold the investments for at least a few more years. Two of those fallen fintech stocks are Upstart ( ...

Financial giants have made a conspicuous bearish move on Upstart Hldgs. Our analysis of options history for Upstart Hldgs (NASDAQ:UPST) revealed 13 unusual trades.Delving into the details, we found 15% of traders were bullish, while 84% showed bearish tendencies. Out of all the trades we spotted, 8 were puts, with a value of $320,165, and 5 were calls, valued at $214,170.Predicted Price RangeAfter evaluating the trading volumes and Open Interest, it's evident that the major market movers are focusing on a p ...

The expected results are impressive. Most investors are just too focused on its recent past.It's been a disappointing past four years for Upstart Holdings (UPST 4.74%) shareholders. The stock's gone nowhere since falling back from its late 2021 peak following its 2020 public offering. Although 2023 was a pretty poor year for its business (following incredible growth during the COVID-19 pandemic's height), the company's put itself back on a growth track in the meantime. The stock just hasn't budged.However, ...

Core Insights - Upstart is leveraging artificial intelligence to innovate in the credit space, analyzing 2,500 variables to assess borrower risk and improve loan approval rates [1][6] - The stock has shown significant volatility, trading 88% below its peak but has increased 144% over the past three years, despite a 35% decline in the last year [2][6] - Upstart's revenue grew by 71% year-over-year in Q3 2025, driven by a 128% increase in transaction volume, with personal loans being the primary product [3][4] Financial Performance - Management forecasts a net income of $50 million for the full year, aided by controlled engineering and product development costs [4] - The current market capitalization of Upstart is $4.5 billion, with a gross margin of 97.61% [6] Market Potential - Upstart operates in a massive total addressable market worth trillions, focusing on various lending verticals and collaborating with banks and credit unions [6] - The company is experiencing early success in auto loans and HELOCs, indicating potential for further growth [3] Long-term Outlook - There is speculation that if Upstart maintains a 20% annualized growth rate, an initial investment of $10,000 could grow to $1 million in 25 years, outperforming the S&P 500's historical average [2][7] - However, long-term success is uncertain due to the cyclical nature of the business and competition from larger financial institutions investing heavily in AI [7][8]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the identification of investment opportunities in undervalued companies through thorough research and analysis of financial statements and market trends [1] Group 1: Investment Opportunities - The focus is on mid and small-cap companies that are currently undervalued, suggesting potential for growth and investment [1] Group 2: Research and Analysis - The analysis includes a comprehensive review of financial statements, market trends, and upcoming events that could impact specific companies or industries [1]

Core Insights - Kim Long Motor, a Vietnamese auto manufacturer, is partnering with China's BYD to develop a $130 million plant for producing batteries for commercial electric vehicles in central Vietnam [1] Company Developments - The collaboration aims to enhance the production capabilities of electric vehicle batteries in Vietnam, indicating a strategic move towards sustainable transportation solutions [1] - The investment of $130 million highlights the growing interest and commitment to the electric vehicle market in the region [1] Industry Trends - The partnership reflects a broader trend in the automotive industry towards electrification and the increasing demand for commercial electric vehicles [1] - This development is part of a larger shift in Vietnam's automotive sector, which is increasingly focusing on electric mobility and sustainable energy solutions [1]

In the latest trading session, Upstart Holdings, Inc. (UPST) closed at $45.29, marking a -2.14% move from the previous day. The stock's change was less than the S&P 500's daily gain of 0.03%. Elsewhere, the Dow lost 0.58%, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq added 0.28%. Shares of the company have depreciated by 4.02% over the course of the past month, underperforming the Finance sector's loss of 0.08%, and the S&P 500's gain of 0.6%.Investors will be eagerly watching for the performance of Upstart Holdings, Inc. i ...

Core Viewpoint - Upstart Holdings is positioned as a potential multi-bagger stock due to its innovative AI-based loan origination model and significant growth metrics, making it an attractive investment opportunity for those seeking high returns [1][2]. Company Overview - Upstart Holdings operates as an AI-based loan originator, utilizing predictive algorithms that outperform traditional FICO scores in screening borrowers, resulting in higher approval rates and lower default rates [3][4]. Business Performance - In Q3, Upstart reported a 128% increase in transaction volume, with loans originated rising to 428,056. The conversion rate of loan applications approved and funded increased from 16.3% to 20.6%, leading to a revenue increase of 71% to $277 million, including a 54% growth in fee revenue to $259 million [5]. - The company achieved a GAAP profit of $31.8 million, or $0.23 per share, marking a turnaround from previous unprofitability, with expectations for continued margin improvement despite potential revenue growth moderation [6]. Market Position and Growth Potential - Upstart has a market capitalization of approximately $4.5 billion, suggesting a potential for 10x growth while remaining below a $50 billion valuation, which is feasible given the performance of other fintech stocks [7]. - The company has expanded from unsecured consumer loans into larger credit markets, including auto and home loans, experiencing exponential growth in these areas [8]. Challenges and Management Strategy - Despite a 29% decline last year due to credit risk concerns, management reported no significant changes in delinquencies as of last November, although broader economic factors have raised investor concerns [9]. - The stock is considered reasonably priced with a price-to-earnings ratio around 30 based on consensus adjusted earnings per share for 2025, with technology providing a competitive edge and opportunities for expansion into new financial products [10]. - Management is focused on diversifying lending products and expanding partnerships, demonstrating resilience and adaptability post-pandemic, which could lead to significant long-term growth [11].