Sou Hu Cai Jing·2025-05-08 01:17Group 1 - The Federal Reserve is unlikely to cut interest rates in the short term, especially not preemptively, with future rate cuts depending on tariff negotiations [1] - If tariff negotiations do not yield substantial progress, the Fed may be forced to initiate "recession-style" rate cuts, potentially reducing rates by 100 basis points by the end of the year [1] - Conversely, if effective results are achieved in tariff negotiations, rate cuts may be delayed until December, with a more moderate reduction [1] Group 2 - Huatai Securities maintains a configuration suggestion focused on mid-term dividends, domestic demand, and technology, indicating a moderately positive short-term outlook [2] - The recent announcement of a comprehensive financial policy to stabilize the market is expected to support risk appetite among market participants [2] - The focus on technology and consumption sectors is reaffirmed as key areas for policy support [2] Group 3 - China Galaxy Securities continues to view the banking sector as having strong configuration value, supported by a series of financial policies including reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate reductions [3] - The release of liquidity and innovation in structural tools are expected to optimize the credit structure of banks [3] - The accumulation of positive fundamental factors in the banking sector is anticipated to accelerate the realization of its dividend value [3]