Core Viewpoint - The report from CICC maintains the profit forecast for Yuan Da Pharmaceutical (00512) at 2.131 billion yuan for 2025 and 2.235 billion yuan for 2026, following the successful achievement of clinical endpoints in the Phase II trial of the global innovative product STC3141 for sepsis treatment [1][2]. Group 1: Market Potential and Clinical Need - The theoretical market space for sepsis drugs is vast, with approximately 49 million new cases annually and over 20% mortality rate among patients, contributing to around 20% of global deaths [2]. - In China, the incidence of sepsis in intensive care units ranges from 20.6% to 50.8%, with about one-third of patients experiencing in-hospital mortality [2]. - The average treatment cost for sepsis patients in high-income countries exceeds $32,000, highlighting the significant unmet clinical needs due to the complex pathophysiology of the disease [2]. Group 2: STC3141 Clinical Trial Success - STC3141 is an innovative drug developed by the company, designed to reverse organ damage caused by excessive immune responses in sepsis by neutralizing extracellular histones and neutrophil extracellular traps [3]. - The Phase II clinical trial (CTR20233109) involved 180 sepsis patients receiving standard treatment, with results showing a significant decrease in the Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA) score by day 7 in the treatment group, particularly in the high-dose group, demonstrating statistical significance and clinical relevance [3]. - The safety and tolerability of STC3141 were found to be good, and the company is encouraged to monitor the complete data readout and publication [3]. Group 3: Strategic Implications - STC3141 is expected to fill the clinical gap in sepsis treatment, offering a differentiated mechanism focused on immune homeostasis, which could provide significant clinical benefits [4]. - The company has a well-established product line in respiratory and critical care, and the commercialization of STC3141 is anticipated to synergize with its existing pipeline [4].
中金：维持远大医药(00512)“跑赢行业”评级 升目标价至8港元