Core Viewpoint - The dollar is facing unprecedented challenges as Asian countries begin to sell off their dollar reserves, potentially leading to a massive $2.5 trillion sell-off [1][3]. Group 1: Potential Crisis Analysis - Stephen Jen and Joana Freire from Eurizon SLJ Capital highlight that Asian exporters and investors have accumulated a vast amount of dollar assets due to active international trade, which has created a trade surplus with the U.S. [3][4]. - The ongoing trade war led by the U.S. has prompted Asian investors to reassess their asset allocation strategies, potentially withdrawing funds to stabilize their domestic economies or to hedge against a weakening dollar [3][4]. Group 2: Dollar Vulnerability - Jen and Freire estimate that the dollar assets held by Asian exporters and institutional investors could be around $2.5 trillion, posing a significant downside risk to the dollar against Asian currencies [4]. - The Bloomberg Dollar Index has dropped approximately 8% since reaching its peak in February, with all Asian currencies appreciating against the dollar in the past month, indicating a potential shift in market dynamics [4]. Group 3: Market Reactions - The New Taiwan Dollar has notably surged, with a single-day increase of 5%, marking the largest daily gain since 1988, and a year-to-date increase of nearly 8%, suggesting that Asian policymakers may be preparing to strengthen local currencies as part of trade negotiations with the U.S. [4][5]. - Jen previously warned that if the Federal Reserve implements interest rate cuts, around $1 trillion could flow back to China as Chinese companies sell off dollar assets [5].
startrader:亚洲或引爆2.5万亿美元抛售潮,疯狂囤金真相曝光!
Sou Hu Cai Jing·2025-05-08 03:40