美联储保持观望态度维持利率不变，市场定价首次降息或在7月

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve decided to maintain the federal funds rate target range at 4.25% to 4.50%, marking the third consecutive meeting without a rate change in 2023 [1] - The Fed will continue its plan to passively reduce its holdings of Treasury securities by up to $50 billion per month and maintain the $35 billion in agency bonds [1] - Following the announcement, U.S. stock indices and the dollar index initially fell but later experienced slight increases, while gold prices decreased [1] Group 2 - The Fed acknowledged an increased risk of rising unemployment and inflation in its latest meeting statement, indicating greater uncertainty regarding the U.S. economic outlook [2] - Fed Chairman Jerome Powell noted that high unemployment and inflation risks have risen, although they have not yet appeared in the data [2] - The committee remains committed to supporting maximum employment and aims to restore inflation to a target level of 2% [2] Group 3 - Market expectations prior to the meeting indicated a high probability that the Fed would maintain its current stance, with a focus on potential rate cuts in response to tariff uncertainties [3] - Powell reiterated that the Fed does not feel pressured to cut rates but is prepared to act swiftly when appropriate, emphasizing a wait-and-see approach [4] - Analysts suggest that the Fed is likely to pause rate cuts in June, with the first potential cut expected in July, as the impact of tariffs has not yet been fully reflected in the data [5][6]