老凤祥(600612)：金价持续上涨终端动销疲软 期待年内后续业绩拐点

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a significant decline in revenue and net profit for the year 2024 and the first quarter of 2025, primarily due to high gold prices impacting sales performance [2][4]. Financial Performance - For the full year 2024, the company recorded revenue of 56.79 billion, a decrease of 20.5%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.95 billion, down 11.9% [2]. - In Q4 2024, revenue was 4.21 billion, reflecting a sharp decline of 55.1%, with a net profit of 170 million, down 30.4% [3]. - In Q1 2025, revenue was 17.52 billion, a decrease of 31.6%, with a net profit of 610 million, down 23.6% [4]. Business Segment Analysis - In 2024, the jewelry segment generated revenue of 46.91 billion, down 19.3%, primarily due to high gold prices affecting sales. Wholesale and direct sales revenue growth rates were -18.3% and -31.3%, respectively [4]. - Other business segments showed varied performance, with gold trading and craft sales declining by 26.4% and 5.6%, while pencil-related business saw a slight increase of 1.1% [4]. Channel and Network Adjustments - The company experienced a slight reduction in its marketing network, ending 2024 with 5,838 outlets, a net decrease of 156 outlets. Direct sales increased by 10 outlets, while franchise outlets decreased by 166 [4]. Profitability Metrics - The company's gross margin improved to 8.9% in 2024, an increase of 0.6 percentage points, driven by rising gold prices. The gross margins for wholesale and retail jewelry were 9.4% and 23.6%, respectively [5]. - In Q1 2025, the gross margin further improved to 9.1%, up 0.7 percentage points [5]. - The net profit margin for 2024 and Q1 2025 was 3.4% and 3.5%, respectively, both showing slight improvements [6]. Market Outlook - The company is expected to benefit from a recovery in the jewelry sector as consumer confidence in gold prices remains strong, despite short-term fluctuations. The gold price increased by 37% year-on-year in Q1 2025 [6]. - The company, as a leading state-owned gold and jewelry brand, is positioned for steady growth and is likely to benefit from the industry's recovery [6].