周大生(002867)：金价持续走高短期业绩承压 管理层目标25年收入/利润同比+5~15%

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a decline in revenue and profit for the year 2024 and Q1 2025, with a focus on maintaining brand strength and expanding direct sales channels despite industry challenges [1][3][6]. Financial Performance Summary - 2024 Full Year Results: Revenue was 13.89 billion, down 14.7% YoY; gross profit was 2.89 billion, down 2.2% YoY; net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.01 billion, down 23.2% YoY. The company distributed a dividend of 0.95 per share, with a payout ratio of 102.1% [1]. - Q4 2024 Results: Revenue was 3.08 billion, down 18.8% YoY; gross profit was 0.67 billion, down 2.1% YoY; net profit attributable to shareholders was 0.16 billion, down 29.7% YoY [2]. - Q1 2025 Results: Revenue was 2.67 billion, down 47.3% YoY; gross profit was 0.70 billion, down 11.3% YoY; net profit attributable to shareholders was 0.25 billion, down 26.1% YoY [3]. Revenue Breakdown - 2024 Revenue by Product: Solid gold products generated 11.44 billion, down 16.6%; embedded products generated 0.76 billion, down 17.4%; other jewelry (silver and jade) generated 0.60 billion, up 66.7%. By channel, self-operated offline revenue was 1.74 billion, up 7.8%; online revenue was 2.79 billion, up 11.4%; franchise revenue was 9.19 billion, down 23.3% [4]. - Q1 2025 Revenue by Product: Solid gold products generated 2.12 billion, down 53.2%; embedded products generated 0.13 billion, up 0.2%; other jewelry generated 0.15 billion, up 36.5%. By channel, self-operated offline revenue was 0.53 billion, down 16.3%; online revenue was 0.53 billion, down 6.7%; franchise revenue was 1.58 billion, down 58.6% [4]. Profitability Analysis - Gross Margin: The gross margin for 2024 was 20.8%, up 2.7 percentage points; for Q1 2025, it was 26.2%, up 10.6 percentage points, attributed to rising gold prices and changes in revenue structure [5]. - Expense Ratios: In 2024, the sales and management expense ratios were 8.4% and 0.8%, respectively, both up YoY. For Q1 2025, these ratios increased by 4.5 percentage points and 0.5 percentage points [5]. - Net Profit Margin: The net profit margin for 2024 was 7.3%, down 0.8 percentage points; for Q1 2025, it was 9.4%, up 2.7 percentage points [6]. Strategic Outlook - The company aims for a revenue and net profit growth of 5-15% in 2025. Profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 are 1.11 billion and 1.29 billion, respectively, with a P/E ratio of approximately 13x for 2025 and a dividend yield of about 7% [7].