菜百股份(605599)：金价持续走高投资金显著受益 24&25Q1业绩表现超预期

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a strong financial performance for 2024 and Q1 2025, with significant revenue growth driven by investment gold and a robust online sales channel [1][3][4]. Financial Performance Summary - For the full year 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 20.23 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 22.2%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 720 million yuan, up 1.7%, while the net profit excluding non-recurring items was 680 million yuan, reflecting a 4.0% increase [2]. - In Q4 2024, the company reported a revenue of 4.89 billion yuan, a 16.8% increase, with a net profit of 170 million yuan, up 43.0%. The net profit excluding non-recurring items was 160 million yuan, a 37.3% increase [3]. - For Q1 2025, the revenue reached 8.22 billion yuan, marking a 30.2% year-on-year growth. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 320 million yuan, up 17.3%, and the net profit excluding non-recurring items was 280 million yuan, a 10.0% increase [3]. Revenue Breakdown - The revenue from gold jewelry, precious metal investment products, precious metal cultural products, and diamond jewelry for 2024 was 5.47 billion yuan, 12.91 billion yuan, 1.56 billion yuan, and 140 million yuan, respectively. The year-on-year changes were -11.1%, +45.3%, +40.9%, and -34.3% [4]. - The growth in revenue for Q1 2025 was primarily driven by the continuous rise in gold prices, with investment gold continuing to show high growth, while gold jewelry sales remained stable [4]. - The company maintained a direct sales model and opened 11 new stores in 2024, with online sales increasing by 60.3% to 4.78 billion yuan [4]. Profitability Metrics - The overall gross margin for 2024 was 8.9%, a decrease of 1.7 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to changes in product mix. The gross margin for gold jewelry was 18.5%, an increase of 0.7 percentage points, benefiting from the direct sales channel and rising gold prices [5]. - The gross margins for precious metal investment products and cultural products were 2.7% and 16.1%, with the latter increasing by 2.0 percentage points due to price hikes in investment gold [5]. - The net profit margins for 2024 and Q1 2025 were 3.6% and 3.9%, respectively, reflecting a slight decline [6]. Future Outlook - The company is expected to benefit from the rising consumer confidence in gold prices, with a forecasted net profit of 820 million yuan and 900 million yuan for 2025 and 2026, respectively. The current stock price corresponds to a P/E ratio of 12x for 2025 [6].