闫瑞祥：美联储按兵不动，通胀与失业率风险上升引关注

Macroeconomic Overview - The Federal Reserve maintained the federal funds rate target range at 4.25%-4.50% for the third consecutive time, citing stable unemployment and a solid labor market, but high inflation and increased economic uncertainty [1] - Fed Chairman Powell highlighted the uncertainty surrounding the impact of tariffs from the Trump administration, noting that the effects have not yet appeared in economic data, while consumer concerns about rising prices persist [1] - Future Fed policy direction will depend on the intensification of employment and inflation risks, with a potential 50 basis point rate cut expected later this year [1] - The Fed's decision positively influenced the U.S. stock market, leading to a decline in Treasury yields and an increase in the dollar [1] Dollar Index - The dollar index showed an upward trend, reaching a high of 99.95 and a low of 99.197, closing at 99.876 [2] - From a multi-timeframe analysis, the weekly resistance is at 103.30, while the daily level indicates a bullish bias as long as it remains above 99.40 [2] - Short-term analysis suggests a bullish outlook, with support at 99.50 and potential upward movement towards the 100-100.40 range [2] Gold Market - Gold prices experienced an overall increase, peaking at 3434.67 and closing at 3430.31, following a period of volatility [4] - Monthly analysis indicates a four-month upward trend with a recent correction, while weekly support is noted at 3070 [4] - Daily analysis shows that as long as prices remain above the support level of 3337, a bullish stance is maintained, with short-term caution advised if prices break below recent lows [4][6] Euro/USD Market - The Euro/USD pair showed a downward trend, with a low of 1.1291 and a close at 1.1296 [6] - Monthly support is identified at 1.0800, suggesting a long-term bullish outlook, while weekly support is at 1.0900 [6] - Short-term analysis indicates a bearish bias until the price breaks above daily resistance levels, with current support at 1.1330-1.1340 [6]