回不到“解放日”前了？债基巨头警告：特朗普的关税信仰被低估

Group 1 - Pimco warns that investors are underestimating Trump's commitment to high tariffs, with the risk of economic recession at its highest level in years [1][3] - Trump's recent tariff implementation on major trading partners led to significant market turmoil, but a temporary suspension of tariffs helped stabilize the market [1] - Ivascyn emphasizes that the belief in a complete rollback of tariffs is misguided, indicating uncertainty about returning to pre-tariff conditions [1] Group 2 - Ivascyn suggests that tariffs could lead to a "stagflationary" environment, where economic slowdown coincides with rising price levels [2] - The likelihood of an economic recession is at its highest in years, as noted by Ivascyn, coinciding with warnings from the Federal Reserve about increased uncertainty and potential inflation [3] - Pimco maintains a cautious approach in sectors sensitive to economic fluctuations, citing "bubble or complacency" in corporate bonds [3] Group 3 - Despite the cautious stance, Pimco favors high-quality sectors like mortgages due to strong household balance sheets, while slightly increasing holdings in short-term U.S. government bonds [3] - The volatility and uncertainty in the U.S. market, along with deteriorating fiscal conditions, enhance the appeal of diversifying investments into other sovereign debt markets [3] - Ivascyn states that the U.S. will not lose its reserve currency status in the short term, but meaningful progress on deficit issues is unlikely, which may lead to rising price levels [3]