新债王：美股怎么能不跌？金价会到4000美元

Group 1 - Jeffrey Gundlach expresses concerns about market uncertainty due to economic weakness and rising long-term interest rates, alongside increasing unemployment rates [1][2][6] - Unemployment rates are above both the 36-month and 12-month moving averages, which typically indicate a recession [2][6] - Long-term U.S. Treasury yields are rising despite economic weakness, with daily interest payments on debt reaching $4 billion [1][7] Group 2 - Gundlach predicts that gold could rise to $4,000, driven by geopolitical tensions, tariffs, and existing high debt levels, viewing gold as a true monetary asset [1][2][10] - The current spot price of gold is approximately $3,342.36 per ounce, indicating a potential increase of 19.68% to reach Gundlach's target [2] - The S&P 500 index support level is projected to drop from 5,600 to around 4,600, suggesting significant downside potential [1][5][11] Group 3 - The yield spread between low-quality junk bonds (CCC-rated) and higher-rated bonds (BB-rated) has widened beyond its 200-day moving average, signaling potential economic issues [2][8] - Investors are favoring more liquid assets over long-term bonds, anticipating a steepening yield curve [2][8] - The market is currently characterized as risk-averse, with gold showing stability amidst volatility in risk assets and some bond markets [9]