美联储暂缓降息，黄金下跌逾2%，中美关税谈判提振美元

Core Points - The Federal Reserve maintains interest rates at 4.25%-4.50% due to increasing economic uncertainty and balanced risks [1][3] - Fed Chair Powell adopts a neutral tone, indicating readiness to act swiftly if necessary, but warns that tariffs could hinder policy goals [2][3] - Despite a decline in gold prices, geopolitical risks and central bank purchases continue to support gold [3][4] Monetary Policy - The Federal Reserve's decision to keep rates unchanged reflects growing uncertainty in economic outlook and rising risks to maximum employment and price stability [3] - Powell emphasizes that the current policy stance is appropriate and that the Fed is not in a hurry to adjust rates [3] - The Fed is prepared to evaluate which policy tools to use if either aspect of its dual mandate deviates significantly [3] Geopolitical Factors - Ongoing geopolitical conflicts, such as those between Russia/Ukraine, Israel/Hamas, and India/Pakistan, are expected to drive gold prices higher [4] Central Bank Gold Reserves - Central banks, including those of China, Poland, and the Czech Republic, have increased their gold reserves in April [5][7][8] - China's central bank reported a gold reserve of 73.77 million ounces (approximately 2,294.51 tons), marking a month-on-month increase of 70,000 ounces (about 2.18 tons) [7] - Poland's central bank added 12 tons, bringing its total to 509 tons, while the Czech National Bank increased its reserves by 2.5 tons [8] Market Dynamics - The recovery of the US dollar is a negative factor for gold prices, with the dollar index rising by 0.13% to 99.52 [6] - Stable US Treasury yields are limiting gold price increases, with the 10-year Treasury yield holding steady at 4.291% [6] Gold Price Outlook - Gold prices are currently trapped in the $3,350-$3,400 range, with bullish sentiment requiring a recovery above $3,400 to maintain hopes of reaching the $3,450 mark [10] - A drop below $3,350 could pave the way for testing the cycle low of $3,202 from May 1 [11]