36氪出海·欧洲｜这个夏天，德国热泵市场战火重燃

Core Points - The new Building Energy Act (GEG) has become a focal point in German politics, influencing the recent elections and leading to the CDU's commitment to repeal it after their victory [2][4][5] - GEG aims to implement a new national energy standard in the construction sector, requiring a minimum of 65% renewable energy usage in heating systems for new buildings starting January 2024 [5][6] - The act has faced significant opposition, particularly from the CDU, which argues it exacerbates housing costs and benefits only high-income groups [8][11] Summary by Sections GEG Overview - GEG was drafted by Merkel's government in 2020 and passed in April 2023, with the goal of reducing greenhouse gas emissions by 65% by 2030 and achieving carbon neutrality by 2045 [5][6] - The law mandates that all new housing must use heating systems that meet the 65% renewable energy requirement, phasing out traditional oil and gas boilers [5][6] Impact on the Heat Pump Industry - The heat pump industry is the primary beneficiary of GEG, with the market experiencing explosive growth, reaching a size of €7.3 billion and over 350,000 units installed by 2023 [9][11] - The introduction of the BEG subsidy program encourages homeowners to replace old heating systems with heat pumps, covering 30% to 70% of installation costs [7][12] Market Dynamics and Challenges - Despite the initial boom, the heat pump market is expected to decline by over 46% in 2024 due to political uncertainty and a sluggish real estate market [11][12] - The new government plans to adopt more flexible policies, such as CO2 trading mechanisms, instead of enforcing strict installation of renewable heating systems [11][12] Opportunities for Chinese Companies - The BEG subsidy program will continue into 2025, providing a stable funding source for the heat pump market, which could benefit Chinese manufacturers [12][17] - Chinese brands like Gree are already making strides in the European market, with Gree selling nearly 20,000 units annually in Germany [14][17] - The presence of over 30 Chinese heat pump companies at recent trade shows indicates a growing interest in capturing market share in Germany [20]