下挫！黑色商品全线下跌！期螺跌50！钢价再破新低？

Core Viewpoint - The steel market is experiencing a slight decline in both spot and futures prices, with a weak balance between supply and demand leading to a bearish outlook for steel prices in the short term [1][14]. Group 1: Market Analysis - On May 8, the spot steel market saw a slight decrease, with major futures contracts all declining. Rebar prices hit a one-month low at 3047 yuan/ton, while hot-rolled steel dropped by 1.18% and iron ore and coking coal fell by over 2% [1][14]. - The National Development and Reform Commission announced plans to launch approximately 3 trillion yuan worth of quality projects this year, which is expected to boost steel demand and positively impact steel prices [2][14]. - After the holiday, total inventory of five major steel products increased by 289,700 tons to 14.76 million tons, ending a nine-week decline. However, apparent demand dropped significantly by 1.25 million tons to 8.45 million tons, indicating limited recovery in demand post-holiday [3][14]. Group 2: Production and Inventory - Weekly production of rebar decreased by 98,500 tons, with apparent demand dropping nearly 30% or 778,000 tons, leading to an inventory increase of 96,300 tons. Hot-rolled steel production slightly increased, but apparent demand fell by nearly 7% [3][4]. - The overall inventory situation shows a slight increase in both factory and social inventories, indicating a potential oversupply in the market [3][14]. Group 3: Price Trends - As of May 8, the average prices for various steel products showed slight declines, with rebar at 3340 yuan/ton and hot-rolled steel at 3340 yuan/ton, reflecting a general downward trend in the market [7][14]. - Futures prices for all major steel products closed lower, with rebar futures down 1.74% and iron ore futures down 2.73%, indicating bearish sentiment in the market [9][14]. Group 4: Raw Material Market - The price of imported iron ore showed a slight decline, with supply and demand remaining stable but concerns about future demand persisting. The market expects iron ore prices to fluctuate within a narrow range [12][14]. - Coking coal prices remained stable, supported by good demand from steel mills, although some steel mills have reduced their purchasing activity due to high inventory levels [12][14]. - Scrap steel prices remained stable with minor fluctuations, but the overall market sentiment is weak due to reduced demand from electric arc furnace steel mills [12][14].