2030年，50万辆！高盛预测无人驾驶出租车市场十年增700倍

Core Insights - The Chinese autonomous taxi market (Robotaxi) is expected to experience explosive growth, with projections indicating 500,000 units by 2030 and a market size of $47 billion by 2035 [2][3]. Market Growth Projections - Goldman Sachs forecasts a 700-fold increase in the Robotaxi market over the next decade, estimating a market size of $54 million in 2025, $12 billion in 2030, and $47 billion in 2035 [5]. - By 2035, each Robotaxi is expected to generate daily revenue of $69, significantly higher than the average daily earnings of traditional ride-hailing services, which range from $28 to $56 [5]. Factors Driving Growth - Increased consumer acceptance in first-tier cities, a tightening supply of human drivers due to fleet maturity and retirements, and support from government and insurance sectors are key factors contributing to the growth of the Robotaxi market [4]. Early Market Entrants and Opportunities - Early entrants such as Pony AI, WeRide, and Baidu Apollo are positioned to benefit from the rapid transition to autonomous ride-hailing services in China [6]. - Goldman Sachs has provided a list of potential beneficiaries, including Robotaxi operators and companies in the automotive semiconductor and parts supply chain [6]. Comparison with the U.S. Market - The report highlights that China is significantly ahead of the U.S. in the commercialization of Robotaxi services, attributed to a more favorable regulatory environment, faster infrastructure adaptation, and higher consumer acceptance [7]. - In contrast, U.S. companies like Waymo, Zoox, Cruise, and Tesla are still in testing phases or have only initiated small-scale commercialization efforts [7].