按兵不动，美联储在等什么？

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve maintained the federal funds rate at 4.25%-4.50% and continued its balance sheet reduction, reflecting a "wait-and-see" approach amid economic uncertainties [2][3]. Economic Performance - The U.S. economy remains robust with a low unemployment rate of 4.2% and inflation showing signs of improvement, although still above the Fed's long-term target of 2% [3][5]. - GDP growth was 2.5% last year but saw a decline in Q1 this year due to increased imports ahead of tariff policies, impacting net imports significantly [4]. - Domestic private final purchases (PDFP) maintained a steady growth of 3% in Q1, consistent with the previous year, despite a decline in consumer sentiment due to trade policy uncertainties [4]. Employment Market - Job creation remains strong, with the unemployment rate at a relatively low level, and wage growth outpacing inflation, indicating a balanced employment market without significant inflationary pressures [5]. Inflation Trends - Inflation has significantly decreased from mid-2022 highs but remains above the 2% target, with the PCE price index rising 2.3% and core PCE rising 2.6% over the past 12 months [6]. - Recent inflation expectations have shown upward trends, with tariffs identified as a driving factor [6]. Federal Reserve's Stance - The Fed is awaiting more economic evidence to determine whether inflation or employment should be prioritized, influencing future interest rate decisions [8]. - Powell highlighted the significant impact of Trump's policies on trade, immigration, fiscal policy, and regulation, with ongoing uncertainties regarding the effects of announced tariffs [7][8]. Market Reactions - Following the Fed's announcement, markets generally expect three rate cuts this year, with the dollar index fluctuating around 99.6 to 99.7 [9]. - The Hong Kong Monetary Authority maintained its benchmark rate at 4.75%, with the Hong Kong stock market showing strong performance amid active new listings [11]. - U.S. stocks experienced volatility post-announcement, with investor focus shifting back to company fundamentals amid trade policy uncertainties [11].