不少衰退指标再度发出警告！这次还是噪音吗？

Group 1 - Global recession risks have returned to market concerns, with mixed interpretations of economic data and key financial indicators [1] - The disconnect between hard data (like employment figures) and soft data (like consumer sentiment) complicates the assessment of recession risks [1] - U.S. consumer confidence plummeted to a near five-year low in April, which is critical as consumer spending accounts for over two-thirds of U.S. economic activity [1] Group 2 - Growth forecasts have been significantly downgraded, with economists indicating high recession risks, contrasting with previous strong growth predictions [5] - Barclays suggests a notable global economic slowdown, with mild recessions in the U.S. and Eurozone [5] - Commodity markets signal a sharp economic slowdown, with oil prices down approximately 16% this year, reflecting weak demand due to global growth concerns [5][8] Group 3 - The government bond market reflects concerns over economic slowdown due to U.S. tariffs, but does not indicate heightened recession risks, as markets expect central banks to respond with rate cuts [9] - Traders have increased bets on further easing by the European Central Bank, anticipating a 60 basis point cut by December [9] - The yield curve remains a focus, with the 10-year and 2-year U.S. Treasury yield spread remaining positive, despite historical associations with recession predictions [9] Group 4 - Stock markets have rebounded, suggesting that recession fears may have eased, with significant gains in major indices [11] - Companies like Electrolux and Volvo have lowered their earnings outlooks, indicating uncertainty in future performance [11] - Despite strong first-quarter earnings for S&P 500 companies, future expectations have declined compared to early April levels [14]