安本：料市场将对美联储6月更新后的点阵图解读反应冷淡

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve has shifted its stance from a dovish approach, indicating uncertainty due to tariffs and trade policies, and will rely on actual economic data before determining monetary policy direction [1][2] - The interest rate dot plot released in March 2025 indicated two rate cuts, but this is no longer a reliable market guide due to increasing uncertainty [2] - The threshold for rate cuts has been raised, making it more difficult for the Fed to cut rates to support economic growth, as tariffs pose a high risk of rising inflation [2] Group 2 - The company prefers regions outside the U.S., such as Europe and China, which have strong fiscal and monetary policy support to offset the negative impact of tariffs on economic growth [3] - In terms of interest rate-related assets, the company favors regions like India and China, where market correlations with U.S. Treasury yields are lower [3] - The company anticipates that U.S. financial stocks will perform well if the Trump administration's legislative agenda, including tax cuts and deregulation, gains traction [3] Group 3 - The company expects the Chinese stock market to remain resilient relative to Fed policy decisions, supported by fiscal and monetary policy and robust economic activity [4] - The company predicts a gradual easing of U.S.-China trade tensions, which will be positively received by the market [4]