Sou Hu Cai Jing·2025-05-08 09:22Group 1 - The significant appreciation of the New Taiwan Dollar (NTD) raises concerns about its negative impact on Taiwan's semiconductor industry, particularly for foundries like TSMC, UMC, and Vanguard [1] - A report indicates that for every 1% increase in the NTD, the gross margin of foundries typically decreases by 0.3% to 0.5%, suggesting a potential 3% to 5% hit to profit margins due to a 10% rise in the NTD since early Q2 [1][2] - Vanguard International Semiconductor Corporation (VIS) forecasts moderate growth for Q2, with demand for communication, industrial, and automotive semiconductors recovering [1] Group 2 - Assuming an exchange rate of 30.9 NTD to USD, VIS expects silicon wafer shipments to grow by 3% to 5% compared to the previous quarter, but gross margin is projected to decline from 30.1% in Q1 to between 27% and 29% [2] - UMC estimates that a 1% rise in the NTD will reduce its gross margin by approximately 0.4 percentage points, while World Advanced's gross margin may decrease by about 0.5 percentage points for the same rise [2][4] - TSMC predicts Q2 consolidated revenue of $28.4 to $29.2 billion, with a gross margin of 57% to 59% and an operating margin of 47% to 49%, but further appreciation of the NTD could pressure these margins [2] Group 3 - TSMC has not adjusted its guidance for Q2 or the full year in response to currency impacts and is closely monitoring exchange rate trends [3] - TSMC has requested its suppliers to submit cost reduction plans to mitigate the effects of the strong NTD [3]