DBG Markets盾博外汇平台:全球衰退警报再响?真相藏在数据迷雾里

Group 1 - The US job market shows strong data, but consumer confidence has dropped to a five-year low, indicating a disconnect between hard data and soft indicators [1][3] - US consumer spending accounts for over 70% of the economy, yet the confidence index has plummeted, reflecting cracks in consumer and business confidence [3] - Barclays predicts a mild recession in the US and Europe, but notes that this is not a foregone conclusion if trade agreements are expedited or fiscal stimulus is timely [3] Group 2 - Commodity markets are signaling warnings, with oil prices down 16% this year due to weak demand, and copper prices struggling to recover from April lows [3][4] - The expectation of a 60 basis point rate cut by the European Central Bank has been priced in, while the Federal Reserve's expected cut of 115 basis points by mid-2026 has been reduced, yet traders remain optimistic about central bank support [4] - Despite stock market rebounds, corporate earnings warnings are emerging, with companies like Electrolux lowering forecasts and others like Volvo and General Motors withdrawing annual targets [4]