天润乳业(600419)：24年平稳收官 疆外市场表现亮眼

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a revenue of 2.8 billion yuan for 2024, a year-on-year increase of 3.3%, but the net profit attributable to shareholders fell to 40 million yuan, down 69.3% year-on-year [1] Revenue and Profit Analysis - In Q4 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 650 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.8%, with a net profit of 20 million yuan compared to zero in the same period last year [1] - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 0.21 yuan per share (before tax) to all shareholders [1] - The revenue breakdown for 2024 shows that ambient dairy products generated 1.5 billion yuan (down 2%), low-temperature dairy products 1.12 billion yuan (up 3.5%), livestock products 90 million yuan (up 14.3%), and other products 10 million yuan (up 63.9%) [1] - Q4 2024 revenue growth rates for these categories were -3.4%, +2%, +51.2%, and +144% respectively [1] Market Performance - The company’s revenue from the Xinjiang region decreased by 6.3% to 1.36 billion yuan, while revenue from outside Xinjiang increased by 9.5% to 1.36 billion yuan [1] - The decline in the Xinjiang market was attributed to increased competition, while the expansion into external markets was successful, leading to a continuous increase in revenue share from these areas [1] Profitability and Cost Structure - The overall gross margin for 2024 was 18.1%, a decrease of 2.4 percentage points year-on-year, with Q4 gross margin at 12.2%, down 5.4 percentage points [2] - The increase in promotional activities, such as buy-gift promotions, contributed to the pressure on gross margins [2] - The company reported a net profit margin of 0.5% for 2024, down 4.6 percentage points year-on-year, while Q4 net profit margin improved by 2.8 percentage points to 1.9% [2] Product and Market Strategy - The company has a strong integrated dairy farming operation with high self-sufficiency and significant advantages in milk sourcing that are difficult to replicate [3] - The company is pursuing a dual-market strategy focusing on both Xinjiang and external markets, enhancing its presence in Xinjiang while expanding into external markets through targeted products like yogurt and milk [3] - Future profitability is expected to improve as milk prices stabilize in the second half of 2025 [3] Earnings Forecast - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be 0.36 yuan, 0.45 yuan, and 0.56 yuan for the years 2025 to 2027, corresponding to dynamic price-to-earnings ratios of 31 times, 25 times, and 20 times respectively [3]