减产比例仅1/4 ！A股锂业去产能“拉锯战” “低锂价时代”生存之道分化

Core Viewpoint - The lithium carbonate futures market is experiencing significant price declines due to seasonal demand drops and insufficient capacity reduction, leading to oversupply in the industry [1] Group 1: Industry Overview - The lithium carbonate futures contract for May 8 hit a new low of 63,200 yuan per ton, approaching the cost line for integrated mining companies [1] - In 2024, domestic production of lithium carbonate, lithium hydroxide, and lithium chloride is projected to reach 701,000 tons, 414,000 tons, and 24,000 tons, respectively, representing year-on-year increases of 35.35%, 29.54%, and 37.14% [3] - The average capacity utilization rate of 12 sample companies in the lithium sector was estimated at 65.4%, remaining at a relatively high historical level [1][3] Group 2: Company Performance - Among the 12 sample companies, only three, including Cangge Mining, are expected to see slight production declines, while the other nine are projected to increase output [1][3] - Companies like Ganfeng Lithium, Shengxin Lithium Energy, and Yahua Group are expected to see varying degrees of production increases [3] - Ganfeng Lithium's total lithium salt capacity is around 300,000 tons, but its actual utilization rate may only be about 56% when excluding recently completed projects [5] Group 3: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Despite some Australian mines announcing production cuts, domestic lithium salt production continues to grow, outpacing demand growth, which complicates the supply-demand relationship [5] - The industry is still in a "tug-of-war" state without self-regulatory production cuts, unlike the steel and photovoltaic sectors [1] Group 4: Strategic Responses - Companies are adopting cost-reduction strategies in response to the "low lithium price era," with Ganfeng Lithium accelerating the development of low-cost salt lake projects [6][8] - Zhongmin Resources has diversified its operations to mitigate risks, planning to complete a copper mining project by 2026 [9][10] - Cangge Mining's net profit decline of only 24.6% in 2024 was significantly supported by investment income from its copper business, highlighting the benefits of diversification [9]