邓正红软实力思想解析：国际油价持续低位运行对俄罗斯财政体系构成直接压力

Core Insights - The ongoing low international oil prices are significantly impacting Russia's fiscal situation, with the budget deficit expected to rise to 1.7% of GDP, reflecting the broader global energy power dynamics and economic shifts [1][2] Fiscal Impact - Russia's Ministry of Finance has revised its 2025 federal budget revenue forecast down from 40.3 trillion rubles to 38.5 trillion rubles, with the budget deficit projected to increase from 1.1 trillion rubles to 3.7 trillion rubles [1] - The low oil prices are a result of multiple adverse factors, indicating that this trend is likely to continue, putting pressure on Russia's fiscal system as a major energy exporter [1][2] Strategic Responses - Russia is utilizing its National Welfare Fund (NWF) to buffer against oil price shocks, showcasing its ability to convert resource reserves into strategic adjustment tools [2] - The dynamic adjustment of budget rules, allowing the deficit target to be raised from 0.5% to 1.7%, reflects a proactive approach to absorb external shocks, akin to a corporate risk reserve mechanism [2] Market Dynamics - Russia's role in OPEC's production decisions is not passive; by increasing production during low price periods, it aims to gain market share and pressure high-cost competitors like U.S. shale oil producers [2] Demand Diversification - The shift towards energy exports to China and India has increased the share of crude oil exports to China from 14% in 2013 to 35% in 2023, diversifying geopolitical risks and stabilizing demand through long-term agreements [3] Economic Resilience - The share of oil revenue in GDP has decreased from 6.8% to 5.4%, indicating Russia's efforts to cultivate non-energy sectors, such as a 40% increase in agricultural exports, thereby reducing resource dependency [3] Market Sentiment Management - The government has signaled that it can maintain budget balance even with oil prices at $60 per barrel, aiming to manage market expectations and mitigate panic selling [3] Energy Pricing Strategy - Russia is focusing on enhancing its bargaining power in the Asia-Pacific market through infrastructure projects like Arctic LNG and Eastern oil pipelines, while increasing the proportion of transactions settled in rubles [3] Technological Development - The need for breakthroughs in refining technology and low-carbon energy, with a 25% increase in hydrogen energy research investment, is critical for Russia to adapt to global energy transitions [4] Systemic Capability Building - Russia's response strategy has evolved from relying solely on resource endowments to integrating fiscal reserves, restructuring trade networks, and guiding market expectations, which are essential for long-term competitiveness [4]